What's up in Jordan?

How can I quit?

2008-09-13T07:44:00.002+03:00

After reading something like this, it is just too difficult. So Al Shahed reported last week that former prime minister Ali Abu Ragheb took 600,000 dinars from the treasury in the final hours before he left office. Not missing a beat, deputy Ali Dala’in sent an inquiry to the government to ask if this was true and what the money was for. Abu Ragheb refused to comment, saying that it was the job of the current PM to answer.

So, the official answer was that the money was actually withdrawn from the treasury. According to the government response, the money was to “pay those who ensured the oil supply”. The article accompanying the answer implied that the money was distributed to government employees who were charged with this task.

Huh?

I use the term implied on purpose because the answer itself could mean that the money was used to bribe somebody. Anyway, you choose the image: either Abu Ragheb on a park bench with dark glasses and a newspaper over his face and a briefcase on his side, waiting for somebody to tell him that the “merchandise” has been delivered or an image of Abu Ragheb distributing fat plain brown envelopes to happy high level employees who had taken their valuable time to go to Iraq or Saudi Arabia. Presumably, this was a difficult task because, hey, 600,000 dinars is a lot of money.

Anyway, neither image conjures up a scene where Abu Ragheb asks for a receipt. This makes a third scene of Abu Ragheb opening a safe in his house to deposit bundles of cash just as likely.

And this, just as the government was convincing everybody that they are serious about fighting corruption. The government has been really tough. For example, the PM rescinded a tender which had been awarded by the ministry of public works for the “honorable housing” project. The award had been given to a company with ties to the minister, Sahel bin Abdulhadi Majali. The PM also rescinded a tender awarded by the Aqaba Special Economic Zone that had been awarded to the wife of the chief commissioner, Husni Abu Ghaida. Apparently, it is illegal to award yourself a government contract. Who knew? Both men are lucky in that they have clout, and so they still have their jobs. Same goes to Basem Awadallah, who may or may not be involved in human trafficking.

Unlucky is the president of Balqa Applied University Omar Rimawi and his deputies, who were taken handcuffed from their offices after being accused of unspecified administrative and financial improprieties. Either Rimawi is much more corrupt than Abu Ragheb, Majali, Abu Ghaida et al, or he is simply the whipping boy needed to atone for all of their sins اجت الدقه فيه!.

So, I had to get that off of my chest. I still might be away for a while, and I have not made any final decisions. To be truthful, the comments I received from you were deeply moving for me, and I appreciate them very much. I will probably be back, but I can’t say when or with what frequency.

Ciao for now!

Good bye

2008-09-10T18:49:00.000+03:00

Well, it has been three years since I have started this blog. Much has happened since then. Although I have enjoyed relating Jordanian politics through my perspective, I feel that this project has run its course.

My postings have become sporadic, and I really don’t have the excitement anymore to follow up on the minutiae of what is going on. Events change, jockeying techniques change but the basic dynamics and trends are the same. The politicians are the same, their techniques and ambitions are the same, the corruption and mismanagement waxes and wanes, freedoms diminish and peoples’ focus is fixated on their own problems.

I frankly have lost interest. I am afraid that this is affecting the quality of what I post. If I can’t contribute something fresh or interesting, I would rather not continue. In case of something extraordinary happening, I might have something to say. However, these will be the exception and not the rule.

Thank you all for your interest, comments and support over the last three years. I will continue to follow up on what my fellow bloggers are up to. I wish you all the best.

Human trafficking

2008-09-02T17:38:00.001+03:00

The story of the Nepalese worker who is suing KBR and a Jordanian partner, Dawood and Co., is making waves here. The story is that KBR allegedly recruited 13 Nepalese workers to come to Amman and work in local hotels, but on arrival they were forced to go to Iraq and their passports were confiscated here.

The interesting part is that Dawood and Co. apparently is partially owned by Bassem Awadallah, our controversial but beloved head of the Royal Court. The record of the company has mysteriously been expunged from the Companies Control Department website.

Anyway, one would imagine that only people of influence could get restrained, passport-less workers across the border to Iraq.

The parliament is relishing this. Nariman Rousan (who recently compared Awadallah to Elie Cohen) wants a committee of which she is a member to investigate, even though it is outside the mandate of the committee. Who cares about mandate when you are playing politics?

Mohammad Abu Rumman has a more sober assessment. In his article he ignores the Awadallah connection, but emphasizes the seriousness of the suit, and how it will reflect on the country. This is the most important point.

Transferred prisoners to be released

2008-08-15T17:14:00.001+03:00

Finally, the government has announced that Sultan Ajlouni, Amin Sani’ and Salem and Khaled Abu Ghalyoun are set to be released on August 20, and the Israeli authorities have been notified of this decision.

Previously, the government has hinted that they might not be released, citing objections from Israel and a desire not to jeopardize talks over release of other prisoners from Israeli jails.

But the Israelis failed to show any public interest in the issue. I have not heard nor read any official statements expressing any position at all, leaving the Jordanian government with a skeptical public to assert that Israel does, in fact, give a rat’s ass whether they are released or not. In the end, they decided to do the right thing, after trying their best not to.

Don't spend it all in one place

2008-08-09T23:48:00.002+03:00

Jordanians have become commodities experts, carefully following the daily fluctuations in oil prices. So, over the past month, as oil prices have fallen precipitously, they have been waiting to see whether the government was honest about letting prices at the pump follow the oil price trends. Of course, the government has rigorously followed the world prices as they rose.

The poor souls actually believed that the government was good for its word. Humorist Ahmad Hassan Zoubi suggested a grand celebration to announce the lowering of prices, following the model of the New 7 wonders of the world. He also suggested that they invite Jennifer Lopez to sing at the ceremony, because “we have good luck with her”. He was of course referring to Petra winning in the New 7 wonders contest.

So now, the moment of truth has arrived. After world oil prices have fallen around 16% since the first week of July, this has translated to a 5% drop in prices at the pump. Yippee.

It is no secret that this whole thing is a scam. The government gets the oil at deep discounts and charges the consumer full price, plus taxes, pocketing the difference. They refuse to let competitors enter the market, because they are making too much money on this. Free economy be dammed.

But not to worry. Mullah Nader promises that if world prices stay the same, prices will be dropped again next month as well. The reason, we are told, is that prices are calculated based on daily averages. We are led to assume that importers buy commodities on a daily basis, without shopping around.

So, we will go through another round of complaining, and as usual the government will profess its total honesty on the issue. There may be some posturing by the opposition, followed by the government accusing them of “having no alternatives”. Of course, if the government was totally honest it would get out of the oil business and let the private sector do the job.

A giant step back

2008-07-31T13:20:00.008+03:00

Back in the old days (pre 1989), political parties were banned and leftists and nationalist activists were jailed and prevented from employment. Free to organize and act were the members of the Muslim Brotherhood, who colluded with the state to make it look like we had some semblance of pluralism. Since 1999, when the Hamas leadership was expelled from Jordan, and more since 2005, in the aftermath of the hotel bombings, there has been a weakened relationship between the Islamists and the state.

But it looks like we are seeing a change. The Islamists and the government are playing footsie again, with the head of the Mukhabarat (mullah Nader's brother) meeting with both the heads of the IAF and Hamas. Islamists can't hide their glee at getting in the good graces of the government again.

So, now the government is free to arrest and persecute leftist activists again. They recently arrested Saleh Abu Tawileh in Ma'an, demanding that he desist from "political criticism".

Or as Yoggi Berra said, what we have is "Déjà vu all over again".

Be careful what you wish for

2008-07-28T23:32:00.002+03:00

Last year the government reached an agreement with Israel to release four Jordanian prisoners to their custody. This agreement stipulated that the men will remain in Jordanian jails for a maximum of 18 months, and could be released earlier if “Israel freed prisoners who have committed similar crimes”.

So, when Israel released Samir Qintar, families and supporters of the prisoners called for their release on that basis. A sensible request. What happened next?

Well, first the follow up committee of the prisoners’ families reported that the prisoners were told by the minister of foreign affairs and the Jordanian ambassador in Israel that they will not be released now or at the 18 month deadline initially announced. Later, the government spokesman, Nasser Joudeh, denied that the foreign minister and ambassador to Israel had met with the prisoners. He claimed that the ministry of foreign affairs had contacted Al Arab Al Yawm (the newspaper that had carried the initial report) and had asked for the paper to publish a recantation. In turn, Fahed Khitan, the editorial head of the paper said that they had tried to call the ministry and could not reach anybody in charge. He did say that the paper received a call from the ministry that “carried nothing but inappropriate language that did not rise to professional levels or journalistic or media standards”. Ouch.

Anyway, Joudeh is now implying that the government is delaying the release of the prisoners because it does not want to jeopardize talks with Israel about releasing 19 more prisoners.

Khitan today wrote an article suggesting that the original terms for the release of the prisoners may not have been written down or they require further consultations with Israel.

This does not seem to make any sense. First, Israel did nothing to correct the record when it was announced that the maximum time the prisoners will be incarcerated in Jordan will be 18 months. Second, I find the idea that the agreement was not properly documented to be laughable. Third, with regard to the negotiations over the other 19 prisoners, I don’t see what difference it makes to Israel whether the prisoners are released today or next December. As long as Jordan is abiding by the original agreement, then why would negotiations over the other 19 be compromised?

My feeling is that these prisoners are more of a problem for the Jordanian government than they are for Israel. One of them in particular, Sultan Ajlouni, seems to be particularly problematic. He is charismatic and seems to have a political career in his future. And he is east Jordanian. Of course, the more the government drags its heels on releasing him, the larger the stature he will gain. I’d like to see the government spokesman contort words to escape that reality.

There's a sucker born every minute

2008-07-18T22:53:00.005+03:00

Over the past few months, Jordan has seen the proliferation of agents working for “bourses”; taking money from people on the promise of 10, 15, 20% or more monthly interest. Ads are even placed in small advertising newspapers offering incredible rewards for “investors” interested in cashing in.

And since greed usually wins over good sense, these brokers are taking in millions from people, collecting more as they make their promised payments on time. Some people believe that tens or hundreds of millions have been collected this way as people empty their bank accounts, sell their assets and even take out loans from banks so that they can invest in the “boursa”.

Another adage says that the law does not protect the gullible. However, many people are wondering why the government is not doing anything about this situation. One story says that the government prevented one of these agents from traveling on his honeymoon, fearing that he wanted to flee. However, little is being done to shut these operations down or, if they are technically legal, to raise awareness on how these people work and what are the risks involved in these investments. Obviously, no legitimate operation can guarantee such high returns. These are either high risk or they are simply scams. In either case, many people will soon be in for rude awakenings.

And some of these schemes are starting to fall apart. One broker is reported to have fled the country, leaving behind over a million dinars in losses. Another is said to be in jail after losing 35 million dinars in oil trading. I am sure more are on the way.

But the question remains: Why is the government so passive about this? Is it negligence, impotence or complicity?

On the bright side, at least we don't have a CASINO!

What about the rule of law?

2008-07-09T18:32:00.002+03:00

An update on the assault on the head of Tafileh Tech University.

So, a large delegation (jaha) of tribal leaders, headed by Abdulhadi Majali, came to the ‘Adwan settlement camp (madarib), where they asked for a truce (‘atwa) between the ‘Adwan and the Tafila tribes. As per tradition, they refused to drink the coffee offered to them until their request was met.

After exchanging niceties on how everybody loves everybody else, Sultan Abu Orabi Al ‘Adwan intervened, saying that this visit would be a reconciliation (sulha) rather than a ‘atwa.

And everybody praised the ‘Adwan for their magnanimity.

Meanwhile, MP Insaf Khawaldeh says that Abu Orabi could not be protected if he came back to Tafileh.

This is how problems are handled in Jordan in 2008. Just like they were handled in 1808, and most probably just like they will be handled in 2208.

Mixing the unmixable

2008-07-06T16:39:00.003+03:00

Q: What happens when you mix academia, democracy and tribalism?

A: A uniquely Jordanian concoction, that is difficult to describe.

Here is the story. In Jordan, the formula for developing a local community has come to mean establishing a state university somewhere. These universities are not viewed as a source of community development because they are beacons of knowledge, learning, research or innovation. No. They are simply an excuse to hire janitors, gardeners, secretaries and drivers. And, oh yes, faculty members. So the government, under pressure from local MP’s and community leaders, has established a number of universities in areas where unemployment is high. One such university is Tafileh Technical University.

In order to keep up the pretence that such universities are supposed to be real universities, respected academicians are appointed to head them. In the case of Tafileh Tech, Sultan Abu Orabi, a prominent chemist was appointed to head the institution. Of course, this is a problem. Not because he is a bad scientist or administrator. Not because he is bad in dealing with people. The problem is that he is from Salt, not Tafileh. The people of Tafileh view the university as being “theirs”, and it is taken from them by “the other”. Tafileh notables who lobbied to establish this university make no effort at understanding or explaining that the university is a nationally funded institution; that reason and decency require that the best people should be hired there, irrespective of their origin, and that their sons and daughters studying at the university will be better served with competent staff holding responsibility. Now the problems start.

The local community, especially their notables, views the university as being a source of benefits for them and their constituents. Thus, they try to interfere with the hiring policy of the university and even interfere in the academic affairs of the institutions. The president, under the false impression that he should uphold academic standards and fiscal responsibility tries to control the tide of requests. Almost all succumb to the pressure, and all universities are overstaffed with administrative employees who have nothing to do.

But at some point, the president decides he has to say no, raising the fury of the deputies and local leaders.

Apparently, Abu Orabi fired a driver at the university (obviously for a good reason). So, the driver with a group of his relatives crashes the graduation ceremony at the university, assaulting the president and the deputy governor. The police intervene with tear gas, and a large number of people (including Abu Orabi) end up in the hospital.

The police take the fired driver into custody, and under pressure from local MP’s and dignitaries, he is released on bail the same night. Insaf Khawaldeh, a deputy from Tafileh demanded that Abu Orabi should be fired. Here, many people conclude that the driver and his gang didn’t act alone. He wouldn’t dare unless prominent people promised to protect him, which is what happened.

Next, members of the Adwan tribe, to which Abu Orabi belongs, stage an attack on the home of a former Tafileh deputy named Abdallah Akaileh, who they believed was an instigator of the attack on Abu Orabi. They fired about 70 rounds at Akaileh’s house, damaging windows and roof tiles. Fortunately, nobody was hurt. On the other hand, Tafilis in Amman are also rioting over the incident.

It is not clear how this story will end. If it is interesting enough, I will keep you posted.

So, there you have it. The witches brew of academia, tribalism and democracy in a stinky concoction that only Jordanians can manage to put together. Hold your nose and drink up.

Cleaning up the mess

2008-07-05T17:16:00.002+03:00

Last week, the king gave an unprecedented interview, in which he clearly articulated his views on the issues that are concerning Jordanians these days. I must say that the frankness in the king’s latest interview was a breath of fresh air. After the public discourse was taken over by fear mongering and slander, this interview should set the stage for an honest and open discussion on the issues that we face. Thanks for Nasim for taking the trouble to translate it.

The five most important points (to me) were:

1- We should do our best to attract investments now, because the oil boom in the Gulf will not last forever.

2- It is legitimate debate to question how the money from selling land will be spent, but selling land in itself does not mean that it will leave Jordanian sovereignty.

3- The government owns 80% of land in Jordan (I didn’t know that).

4- The Royal Court has no jurisdiction over the government according to the constitution, and the king is insisting that this is how things are and how they will be.

5- The king is aware of the gossip and rumors, and admonished people to look for facts rather than sensational lies.

Now, the interview was needed simply because the country has been immersed in all kind of rumor and innuendo for the last five months. I agree with the king’s point that this style of interviews should not become a routine thing. However, not doing it would have led to a growing credibility gap between the state and the people. And I thing I should elaborate on this.

First, it is not the king’s job to explain the government’s thinking. It is the government’s job. Because they failed to do this, the credibility gap grew. Actually, it was the PM who started the land sales rumors, and when he lost control he resorted to trying to bury people in bullshit rather than the honest, straightforward approach that the king took.

Second, the fictional “returning of constitutional authority of the government” has only come to public discourse since Dahabi took office. I always thought that this is a ridiculous issue, given that the government has much more power than it really should in Jordan. Of course, this term is a code reference to Bassem Awadallah taking over the government’s mandate, and has taken on unfortunate sectarian overtones. Of course, the Royal Court does not have constitutional mandate over the government. If Dahabi feels that he has to lick Awadallah’s shoe, that’s his problem, not Awadallah’s. Dahabi should stop the cry baby routine acted out through his proxies.

Third, the Jarash festival issue was totally mismanaged by the government from start to finish. Again, this has been through the actions that it took and poor communication with the public.

The interview was necessitated by poor performance of the government and the bickering between the PM and the head of the Royal Court, pure and simple. I would respectably submit that it is not the people’s fault that there are rumors, as it is the people in power who are starting them and using them to further their agendas. This is where the blame should be placed.

Who needs culture?

2008-06-30T12:23:00.004+03:00

When Mullah Nader canceled the Jarash festival, it seemed to me like any other fundamentalist ruse to stifle culture and art, with an added bonus of saving money (even though we just created a new tax specifically to support culture a few months ago. I wonder what that was for). Of course, canceling a festival that has been going on for over 25 years and is well known across the Arab world is somewhat complex. The festival is a money loser, but is also gives people visiting Jordan something to do during the summer. Without the festival, Jordanian nightlife in the summer is more than a tad boring. Tourists don’t come to be bored.

So, the festival was canceled and replaced with the “Jordan Festival”. What followed was quite amazing. I wouldn’t call it a fiasco because it seemed well planned out.

First, word was let out that a French public relations firm called Publicis was organizing the event. It turns out that Publicis organized Israel’s 60^th anniversary celebration. The Jordan tourism board has denied that Publices has anything to do with the organization, but not everybody is convinced. Nasim has a good account of what happened next. It looks like the whole thing will be a flop.

Now, this whole thing stinks because the government changed the Jarash festival formula for no obvious financial, artistic or organizational reason that anybody is convinced of. Then they gave it to a foreign company to put together (with the Jordan tourism board as a cover, even though they have no experience in such events). Then, after the stink came out, they stood by and let the whole thing implode. Some reports even suggest that they purposely sat by passively as the controversy raged.

So, as far as I can tell, we are looking at a purposeful sabotage of a successful Jordanian tradition committed by the professional unions and aided and abetted by our own wise government.

Nice job, guys. Maybe now you can sell Jarash.

Solutions for an "effective" media

2008-06-14T10:50:00.001+03:00

Fahed Fanek, chief of the government mouthpiece (Al Rai) is wringing his hands over the ineffectiveness of Jordanian media. He complains that people criticize the media without offering an alternative. Charging opponents with not having an alternative is almost a reflex with Fanek.

I understand the dilemma. The government wants a free press without anybody saying anything uncomfortable. This press should also be highly credible. Why is this task so difficult? I don’t know what he means by “effective”? Actually, I do.

Anyway, here is my alternative. Let people say and publish what they want. I know this sounds novel. I have another simple suggestion for the “effectiveness” problem. Let the government tell the truth. It will be difficult at first, but they might get used to it.

A new public meetings law

2008-06-06T12:54:00.002+03:00

One refreshing aspect of Mullah Nader’s government is that it has stopped all pretences of being liberal, progressive or enlightened, let alone responsive to public sentiment. Here, we are dealing with imposed reality, unplugged.

So, it was surprising to see that the government sent a new draft law for public meetings to parliament. To my more naïve western readers, yes, there is a public meetings law. For any public gathering you need permission from the governor. Usually, the governor summarily says no. He doesn’t have to say why.

There have been heavy public demands to reform this law, specifically towards simply needing to inform the governor so that he can make security arrangements. However, the new law is very similar to the old one. Cosmetic modifications were introduced; lowering the period of time needed to inform the governor and excluding some non-political gatherings from its provisions.

Of course, opposition activists are unhappy with this new law. Yesterday, they tried to persuade the parliamentary “public freedoms” committee to introduce more liberal changes. According to one member of the committee, Abdelraouf Rawabdeh, he tried to change the committees mind towards the needed changes. However, it seems that the committee didn’t like the activists’ attitude. So, they left the most important provisions the way they are.

Of course, the whole approach of these activists was wrong. Instead of trying to persuade the committee with logic, they should have invited them to a mansaf. Don’t they know how things work in Jordan? Sheesh.

So, because the activists were not nice enough, we will get a new public meetings law that is the same as the old one. It is not because we live in a police state. It is because the activists didn’t say “pretty please with a cherry on top”.

Jordan and the collapse of the “moderation axis”

2008-05-23T11:53:00.003+03:00

Ever since the disastrous decision in 1990 to stand against the use of military power to liberate Kuwait, Jordanian policy has been to firmly align its foreign policy with the desires of the US and its Arab proxies in the Gulf and Egypt. Of course, this was nothing new, as traditional Jordanian policy was western leaning, despite the Gulf war detour.

And since the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the subsequent alignment that followed, Jordan, along with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE as well as the parliamentary government of Lebanon and Mahmoud Abbas’ Fateh government in Palestine coalesced into what has become known as the “moderation axis”. In opposition, Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hizbollah, with the sometimes backing of Qatar, formed the “axis of objection”. While not publicly supporting of US politics in Iraq or even the US’ apparent desire to strike Iran militarily, the widespread impression is that the Arab members of the AoM were willing to barter their position on these issues in exchange for US pressure on Israel to resolve the Palestinian issue. The desire for peace with Israel was codified into what is known as the “Beirut declaration”, which was based on a Saudi initiative.

Anyway, the AoM is now on the run. Hamas is in control of Gaza, and the Palestinian issue is on the back burner, with Abbas threatening to resign. The Lebanese government caved into the demands of Hizbollah (with Qatari intervention). And for icing on the cake, Israel is conducting back channel peace negotiations with Syria.

And where does that leave us? On a political level, the possible repercussions of the collapse of whatever is left of the Palestinian authority are as stark as ever. On the economic level, the Saudis and Emaratis are reportedly refusing to help out with our serious economic problems, despite them sitting on piles of money that they don’t know what to do with. Our membership in the AoM is not enough to appease the US, who seems to be insistent that the final solution of the Palestinian issue should be on Jordan’s expense. It is ironic that we have joined the team that , even if it wins, is hostile to Jordan and it's interests. And even as Syria is negotiating with Israel, they refuse to deal with Jordan on any of the hanging bilateral issues (including border, trade and water issues).

And reading recent press commentary, it is clear that even people who had serious problems with our foreign policy are finding it too difficult to gloat. The biggest question is what next? One option is to wait for the election of a new president in the US. Odds are that this is a poor bet, and so we need to play a better game.

What are our cards?

Foremost is security and security cooperation. Everybody in the MoA is quite happy to use Jordanian intelligence and their security capabilities. This includes the US (especially Jordan’s relationship with Iraqi Sunnis), and Saudi Arabia, who’s control of Al Qaeda is partially due to Jordanian help.

Then there is diplomacy. Here the adage “why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free” is particularly apt. We gave away all our diplomatic chips without getting anything tangible in return. Any reexamination of our diplomacy should include a fresh look at diplomatic initiatives towards Iran, Hamas and Syria.

Finally, national unity and stubbornness. This should start with explaining what the challenges are, what the requirements are, and why we refuse to capitulate. Real steps should be made for more self-reliance, especially in energy and food production. To be open with the people, the regime should also make real movement towards political pluralism and personal and public accountability. This will require the cessation of all the controversial land sales until a national consensus is achieved (even partially). This is the only way to get the people behind such a challenge.

Something else to start denying

2008-05-17T10:23:00.008+03:00

Despite all of the fuss made about the sale of the new army headquarters and the King Hussein Medical Center, an even more expensive and questionable project is sliding by. This is the proposed government complex in Wadi Abdoun, or what is known as the Abdoun corridor. I mentioned this before, as well as the fact that most commentators, including Fahed Fanek (who is hardly anti-capitalism), think it is a bad idea.

Mullah Nader’s denials not withstanding, the mayor of Amman is still saying that the project is still on track, despite the fact that the initial investor, Najib Miqati, has decided that the investment is not worth it. The mayor, Omar Ma’ani, says that the project will be offered to investors in three to four months. He says it is too simplify government procedures and to make things easier for the citizen blah blah blah.

What is most interesting is that he says that they want to move all the courts and the ministry of justice to a new “justice village”. One only has to look at this Google Earth image to see why this is so interesting.

Note the relationship between our central court house (which has only been in service a few years) and the Abdali project (I wonder what the whited out area is. Can anybody fill me in?). Anyway, I think this interest in relocating the courts may not really be driven by an uncontrollable urge to make things easy on people. Maybe I’m just cynical.

The municipality contorted the law to no ends to be able to confiscate a much smaller parcel of land from Talal Abu Ghazaleh for the Abdali project. Ironically, the courts let them get away with it.

Questions I think should be answered:

1- How much will this “justice village” cost?

2- How much will we get for the current central court house, and how much was spent to build it in the first place?

3- Who will get the money and how will it be spent?

4- When will they stop treating us like idiots?

A tough crowd

2008-05-11T20:29:00.003+03:00

Members of parliament were not particularly impressed by Mullah Nader's explanation on the land sale issue. Some even called on him to resign. It is possible that they were speaking to the cameras, but still the same this reflects widespread dissolution and skepticism on the management of the economy in general and the land sale issue in particular.

Nariman Rousan, who has a penchant for saying embarrassing things, accused the government of being run from behind the scenes by Bassem Awadallah. She said that all these deals are "suspicious" and compared Awadallah to Israeli Spy Eli Cohen (who almost became defense minister of Syria). A crowd pleaser that embarrassed the parliament speaker (who had previously helped torpedo Awadallah's appointment as minister of finance) into disavowing these statements.

Many people suspect Awadallah to be behind many of the initiatives to sell state property, among other things. However, this is not a personal issue.

Most of the MP's comments on the land sale defense were skeptical and angry. Samih Bino suggested that a "high security official" owns a lot of land in the area, and that Dahabi consulted with him on the issue. Abelraouf Rawabdeh pointed out that once the land becomes under the control of a private company (even if run by the SSC), then it will be out of the jurisdiction of parliament to monitor what happens. He also pointed out that this land was originally confiscated for the public benefit, and not private investment.

In summation, Mamdouh Abbadi estimated that 95% of the deputies were against the sale. An account by MP Bassam Haddadin suggests that the afternoon session, without the cameras, was less rowdy.

Editorial comments on the meeting were also interesting. Majid Toubeh (Al Ghad) highlighted the widespread anger throughout the country as a main driving force for the "parliamentary intifada". The PM's explanations were not convincing, and parliamentarians accused him of insulting people's intelligence and for not being forthright.

Other columnists took a wider view, discussing the debate on wider economic policies. Mohammad Abu Ruman slipped up by suggesting that only the "neoliberal" economic team have any concrete plans, unlike their opponents. Samih Maitah took a different track, and said that everybody has the same plan, although there is skepticism over the intentions of the "neoliberals", and a belief that they don't care about the social ramifications of their decisions.

Anyway, none of these discussions will amount to a hill of beans. If they did, we might hear something different.

Dude, who sold my country?

2008-05-10T19:53:00.005+03:00

The prime minister met informally with the parliament last Thursday to explain the plans to sell the new army headquarters and possibly the King Hussein Medical Center. Here are the main points:

1- The government puts the welfare of the citizen above all else blah blah blah.

2- The government commits to be transparent, frank and open blah blah blah.

3- The government has formed a guiding committee to look into using all state lands and what to do with them.

4- The government’s priority is to lure investments, and not erecting buildings or residential areas.

5- But, if the government fails in luring job-producing investments, what are they to do? The government must facilitate investments as dictated by the investors. I don’t understand the logic. If investments don’t help the economy, why should the government facilitate them?

6- Investors told them they want to open regional offices in Amman because of it’s access to Iraqi markets and because it is cheaper than Dubai.

7- The government studied what buildings investors might like and decided that the new army headquarters might fit the bill. Going back to point 5, will these offices be staffed by Jordanians or by representatives of the multi-national companies that will occupy them?

8- They haven’t sold anything, yet.

9- The lying rumor mongers spread lies that the deal has been done.

10- The Social Security Corporation will be “leading the investment”. Previously, the minister of labor, Bassem Salem, who is also the head of the SSC board, said that the corporation will establish a company with a capital of 100 million dinars for this purpose. He also said that they will have “strategic partners”. Now, the lowest estimate for the value of the property has been put at 2 billion. So, the SSC company will have capital to cover 5% of the value of the property. Of course, you can’t but a Hyundai with a 5% down-payment. Who are they kidding? Anyway…

11- Jordanians will have priority in the investment (presumably unlike the Aqaba deal).

12- The SSC will seek funding through “Islamic bonds”. More on Mullah Nader’s Talibani stances in a future post, although I have mentioned one aspect earlier. BTW, it is not his business how the SSC funds its projects or for him to impose his ideological preferences on it.

13- If no Jordanian investor has 2 billion dinars laying around, and the Islamic bonds are too expensive, then the will seek foreign investors in a “transparent open process”.

14- They will “discuss” with the army medical services (who run the KHMC) whether they would like to move to a God forsaken corner of the Jordanian desert or not. It will be purely up to them. Right.

15- In any case, the medical services will still do their job, wherever they are.

16- Everybody should seek non-conventional solutions for the economic situation. Of course, he gives himself too much credit here. There is nothing non-conventional or innovative about this. Most Jordanians have sold their properties to cope with financial difficulties. In the long-run, they lost their assets and spent the money.

17- The money will be used to build a new medical center and to pay off some of the country’s outstanding debt (how much is, of course, left vague).

18- The scheme will create jobs and help the economy blah blah blah.

19- We should trust them.

To me, I would say that I have no ideological issue with holding on to any property, as long as the deal will help improve the economy and create jobs. On the other hand, this long statement not withstanding, the whole scheme does not make any sense. Clearly, the involvement of the SSC is for cosmetic purposes (a fig leaf, if you will). The Islamic bonds scheme seems to be the key. Who can object to Islamic bonds? That would be, well, un-Islamic. My guess is that the Imarati investors will come in through this door, which, as I said, I have no problem with although I resent the insult to my intelligence.

And how much will it cost to build new army headquarters and a new medical center? Construction costs have skyrocketed in the last couple of years. Of course, massive projects provide for opportunities for massive kick-backs. Sorry. I didn’t say that.

Anyway, the discussion after the meeting was interesting as well. More on that later.

Enough

2008-05-06T18:43:00.000+03:00

Her majesty queen Rania has adopted a highly significant campaign to lower traffic casualties. The campaign even has a catchy name, kafa, meaning enough. I will not go into why Jordanians would be more interested in the Egyptian movement with a similar name.

Anyway, I have read somewhere that it is best to lead by example. So, in the interest of a more credible approach to all of this, I would humbly suggest that maybe royal motorcades should follow the same road rules as the rest of us schmucks.

I have been nearly driven off the road many times by a convoy of giant black SUV’s on the airport road. The motorcade insists on taking up one and a half lanes, and the speed at which they travel is highly dangerous (much higher than the prescribed 80 km/hr). If you are not careful, they will easily throw you off the road as the human garbage they want you to feel you are.

So, if her majesty could please have her and her family’s motorcade follow the same rules that we follow, maybe they would set a good precedent for everybody else.

Standard BS

2008-05-05T22:40:00.001+03:00

The geniuses of the higher education council yesterday announced that they are lowering minimum university entrance requirements for some fields at private and some public universities. Now, students are required to get 55% on the Tawjihi examination to be accepted in a number of fields. Previously, the minimum was 60%.

Now, I have been scratching my head about this all day. Why 55%? I mean, if they said 50% (the minimum passing grade), then that would make more sense. The logic would be that anybody who passes the Tawjihi has the right to continue his or her university studies. Despite the flaws in this logic, it does have a certain sense to it. But 55%? Why not 52%? Did they conduct some study that said that a 55% student was academically qualified for undergraduate studies, but 54% was just too low? Is this to maintain some pretence that they are interested in maintaining high quality in our higher education system? Like they are saying “sure, we have standards!”. What a joke.

Of course, the point is to help private universities maintain high enrollment levels. Most of these clowns are shareholders in private universities, and so they have a vested interest in packing them in. This way, classes are full, and the cash flows out of parents’ pockets into theirs. A perfect set up.

What about the students and their families? Sure, they are happier in the short run. But in the longer view, are they being served or abused. Are they being kept from going into the labor market or getting professional training that will allow them to make a decent living? Will the degrees they receive equip them to face the requirements for high quality white collar jobs that they are supposedly being trained for? As far as I can tell, getting students a university degree is a requirement made by parents and not by employers. From a statistical perspective, weak students in high school tend to be weak students in universities. Of course, universities (especially private ones) are loath to expel failing students because they make money off of them. In the final analysis, these students graduate and obtain diplomas, but are of little use in the workplace. Does anybody care?

Is it the job of the higher education system to respond to society’s preferences, or does it have a responsibility to reshape people’s attitudes to better reflect the country’s needs?

We keep hearing talk about giving our new generation the tools for dealing with the modern job market. Clearly, actions speak louder than words.

Human rights: theory and practice

2008-04-29T18:33:00.003+03:00

Jordanian university curricula are often accused of being too theoretically oriented, with little applied demonstrations. Not true for Yarmouk University.

For example, the university runs a course in human rights. As part of the course, somebody thought (for some inexplicable reason) that it might be a good idea to hear some opposition views on what is going on in Jordan.

So, they invited Fakher Da’as, who is running the Dhabahtoona campaign for student rights. So, five minutes before the guy is supposed to give his presentation, the head of the political science department informs the course instructor that the university administration has banned the lecture. See, this is the practical side of the course.

And things had been going so well. The university had been basking in the glory of the king’s visit last week. In it, he had exhorted the students to get involved in politics and promised that nobody will persecute them for their activism. Radio host Mohammad Wakeel gushed at how the wise and foresighted leadership of the university president was the reason why the king chose Yarmouk University as a venue to put out his message. Wakeel was happy with the university president because the said president made sure that Wakeel’s son would be one of the select students who met the king during the visit.

Part of Wakeel’s radio show involves an exhaustive reading of newspaper headlines in the morning. For some strange reason, he forgot to read the headline on this story this morning, even though it was reported in Al Ghad. It must have been an unintentional oversight.

So there you have it. In a nutshell, we can see the disconnect between theory and practice, professional journalism and hack journalism, sloganeering and reality. A perfect representation of what Jordan is today.

Rumors or trial balloons?

2008-04-22T19:55:00.003+03:00

The highly credible government spokesman, Nasser Joudeh, has categorically denied that the government is planning on selling the King Hussein medical center and the surrounding lands, including the new army headquarters. He said that these are simply untrue rumors, and called on people to ignore them. He also said that if the government planned on doing so, they will be transparent about it and let us know before hand. I think this would be a nice gesture, don’t you? I mean, if I had known about the Aqaba deal before hand, I might have sold my donkey and bought a couple of shares. I would appreciate a heads’ up next time, thank you very much.

So, who are the lying rumor mongers who started all of these untrue rumors?

Well, we can ask Rana Sabbagh and Jamil Nimri. Both of them reported on the issue, simultaneously, based on unnamed government sources. Nimri went slightly further and directly quoted the prime minister defending the sale of the KHMC.

So, Sabbagh and Nimri both woke up one morning, and by some cosmic fluke decided to fabricate statements by unnamed government officials that they want to sell the KHMC. So did an unnamed AFP reporter. What a strange coincidence.

But I agree with Joudeh. We shouldn’t believe those lying rumor mongers. We should trust our virtuous government. Joudeh said that too. He said that it was not allowed to question the government’s efforts to help the people. Who would dare do such a thing, any way?

Anyway, why would the ~~government~~ lying rumor mongers start such vicious untrue rumors? As far as I can tell, there may be two reasons. The first is to see how people might react to such a proposal. The second is to get people used to the idea. So they will let the issue simmer for a while, and soon enough people will accept the idea. A tried and true formula.

We will find out soon enough. In the mean time, we might try to figure out where the hell is Madouneh.

The great land rush of '08

2008-04-15T21:46:00.003+03:00

By conservative reckoning, I estimate that the government has given away about 200 million dinars worth of free land to the investor who wanted to build the casino on the Dead Sea, just so that he doesn’t build the casino. Everybody has been led to believe that this is some great achievement. I mean, can a price tag be put on virtue?

Other land is busily being disposed of, but at a cash price. Aside for the no-casino give away, there are three massive real estate transactions on the table.

In Aqaba, the main port area has been sold to investors from the UAE. The plan is to move the port to the southern part of the coast, and free up the land in the north for high end tourism projects. There has been a plan to do this for a while, with environmentalists have been worrying about how this will damage the fragile coral reefs in the proposed new port site. Jamil Nimri has been privy to “inside source”, who assured him that it is a fair deal.

Rumors have been going on that there is a plan to sell the area of the King Hussein Medical Center, along with the newly built and still unoccupied army headquarters and possibly the General Intelligence Department building, also to UAE investors. The original rumors said that 4 billion dollars will be paid for the area. More recent reports cut the amount to two million. New army headquarters and a new medical center are planned to be built in Madouna, in the eastern desert. Nimri again reports that the PM has defended the sale. The medical center buildings are old, and why keep land that can be sold to build much needed office space? This argument may make sense, although I was always under the impression that hospitals should be easily accessible. The PM is now saying there is no land sale. We will see.

The third project is the most controversial. The mayor of Amman is planning on building a complex for governmental offices (which is not the responsibility of the Amman municipality). The developer is Najeeb Miqati, the former Lebanese prime minister. The complex is to cost 1.4 billion dinars, and will be rented to the government. The project is a financial loss for the government. Renting the complex will cost about 140 million dinars a year, while currently the government pays only 11 million dinars per year for renting buildings all across the country. It is not unusual for Nahid Hattar to oppose such a project, but you know that there is a problem when Fahed el Fanek opposes it. Reports suggest that the government has not signed on to the scheme, and the PM is sending signals that he was not consulted and has not committed to moving government departments in rented buildings to the new complex. Of course, given the way that decisions are made (in closed rooms, away from public scrutiny), we will only find out when the ~~dictator~~ mayor of Amman makes his decision. Whatever the PM thinks, the municipality is going ahead with the land confiscation for the project. Maybe the PM doesn’t know that the decision has already been made.

The government says it is trimming down, as if the problem is with the real estate that it owns. I would like to see the government spending cut back and rationalized. With all this extra cash floating around, I think that this is a remote possibility, so say the least. We can only hope that a fraction of it will be spent on something useful.

Hypocrisy

2008-04-15T17:17:00.002+03:00

Q: How would a prime minister who is presiding over an economy with over 10% inflation, slow economic growth, failing public education and health services and an inability to execute any important public projects prove his worthiness?

A: Demonstrate his piety.

So, PM Dahabi cancelled a previously agreed upon contract with a British investor who wanted to open a casino in the Dead Sea area. Apparently, the opening of a casino offended his sense of propriety and dignity. He also managed to weasel out of a 1 billion dinar fine which was in the contract in case the government reneged on its end of the deal. The investor forfeited the fine in exchange for 1200 dunums in the Dead Sea and 150 dunums in the Shafa Badran area in northern Amman. A bargain. I mean, even if we paid the billion (and I mean WE in the real sense of the word) it is worth it to save ourselves from the evil of a CASINO.

In our happy kingdom, there is no gambling. Sure, you can put your money in savings account in the bank for less than 1% interest. Why would you do that? For a chance to win the GRAND PRIZE, of course. Why else would you forfeit 80% of your interest?

Or you can buy lottery tickets. The General Union for Voluntary Societies runs a lotto. So does the football federation and the basketball federation. All legal and sanctioned by the government. I mean, randomly choosing a paper with a number on it and hoping that the number matches what a randomized set of numbers is generated by machines is not gambling, is it?

In order to gamble, you need to go very far away. It is a 10 km boat trip from Aqaba to Taba. You can also take a 30 minute flight to Sharm el Sheikh or Cairo. They have casinos there. Of course, I am not saying anything that many of the MP’s feigning indignity over the casino don’t know first hand. But, in our kingdom of virtue, we can’t face up to the truth that people are not angels. Yes, many ministers, parliamentarians, business people and politicians go to Egypt and Beirut to gamble. Of course, none of them have the courage to admit it. Casinos are for countries with governments that have no sense of virtue.

Sure we have sweatshops where tens of thousands of foreign workers are overworked, underpaid and abused. This is ok. In the kingdom of virtue, there are no casinos, because we know what is proper and just. It is the government’s job to decide what is proper and just.

And while we are fretting at whether a project that might create a couple hundred jobs and revitalize a community most famous for having the highest rate to tuberculosis and Leishmaniasis in the country, other things are happening.

The government sold the port of Aqaba for 5 billion dollars. We are assured that this is a good deal. The government is also planning to sell the land on which the King Hussein Medical Center resides for 2 billion dollars. Not to worry. A new medical center will be built in Madouneh, a leisurely two hour drive into the eastern desert. Our people deserve no less.

But what will be done with the billions collected for selling this land? I am willing to bet that it will not reflect on our economy, infrastructure or services. Letting the government control this money is the biggest gamble of all. More on the land business later.

A new Salt document

2008-04-12T11:30:00.002+03:00

In 1981, the Salt development establishment issued what was considered to be a revolutionary document. It outlined a new set of rules for spending habits on social occasions, which were the document considered to have been excessive and wasteful. One must understand the Jordanian mentality to appreciate this issue.

Traditional Jordanian (and Arab) culture places a premium on generosity. Anybody that is branded as being cheap has to face social pressures and all forms of embarrassment. Occasions in which there are large gatherings of people (weddings, funerals, passing the tawjihi, etc.) are considered to be tests where one’s generosity can be on display, requesting the organization of large feasts. Proof of generosity is also shown in the value of dowry and gifts given by the groom to the bride and her family. Gifts need to be given when visiting sick people. The list goes on, and these habits have been ingrained into the society and are part of people’s expectations.

Mixed with this, most people are too embarrassed to face up to the reality that they have limited financial resources. Because of this, even poor people became involved in exaggerated spending and displays of generosity, placing them into debts that are difficult and totally avoidable, if only society changed its expectations.

So, the original Salt document was drafted to spell out what was expected and appropriate for spending at various social occasions. It called for more modest festivities and gave people a social cover to curb their spending. People were not being cheap, but were abiding by the dictates of the Salt Popular Document.

Of course, habits and traditions die hard, and soon the document was forgotten, with minimal impact on how things were done. The ‘80’s were a time of economic prosperity (until the crash of ’89), and so there was little incentive to take the document as seriously as it should have. One notably successful result of the document was the abolition of a habit whereby guests at social occasions were offered cigarettes.

This year, the city of Salt has been proclaimed the Jordanian city of culture. On this occasion, the notables of the city have taken upon themselves the task of revising the document to take into account modern development and deficiencies in the original. Given the current economic realities, this initiative could not have come at a better time. The modified document places limits on various aspects of spending and other social habits related to different occasions, and it is recommending that people sign pledges to oblige by the document. An awareness campaign is also being planned to get as many people on board, in Salt as well as throughout the country.

This is a wonderful initiative, and I hope that it helps people both deal prudently during social occasions but also helps establish a culture that respects rational consumption patterns. This is what is needed now.

Educational reform, Jordanian style

2008-04-04T11:27:00.004+03:00

Parliament recently amended the education law. The amendments included a controversial ban on so-called cultural centers from teaching students ministry of education curricula.

Students go to these centers to improve their chances in getting good grades on the dreaded tawjihi (high school exit) examination. The tawjihi is a pivotal point in the lives of Jordanians. Their prospects for education and work are made or broken depending on this test. It is not surprising that students would want to try and get any edge they can, and they are willing to pay for this extra edge.

So, why does this bother the ministry of education? On his justification for amending the law, the minister of education said simply that teaching the education curricula is the job of schools, and not these centers. He added that “some” of these centers distorted the curricula, requiring this ban. Other justifications included the charge that the centers discouraged teachers from giving their best in the class room, as these same teachers often also work at the cultural centers. He said that this is not fair to students who do not go to the centers.

Without going into the response of the cultural centers themselves, I would say that perhaps the ministry of education needs some instruction on simple problem solving techniques. Let’s say that the fact that students for some reason are not learning at ministry of education schools. Now, since the ministry also does the tawjihi, they can control perceptions on how well they are doing their job by simply adjusting the results to improve success rates. No problem. It is no wonder that the ministry is reluctant to abolish this backward examination. They don’t want universities running entrance examinations.

But the students know that they aren’t learning well, and they don’t want to trust the MoE to pass them. So, they either go to the cultural centers, or the more financially able get private tutors. Now, this is embarrassing. The idea that 80,000 students need extra help to learn the ministry curricula is a clear indication that there is something terribly wrong.

Now, what is the problem? The reaction of the ministry suggests that they are embarrassed by their demonstrable failure being exposed (they are not embarrassed by the failure itself). So, to rid themselves of this embarrassment, they deal with the symptoms (the cultural centers) rather than with the problem (their teaching is poor). The assumption that teachers will start teaching better if they are prevented from also teaching at the cultural centers is tenuous at best. I mean, maybe the teachers have a vested interest in their students paying them to do a good job (because their salaries are low). However, it doesn’t follow that if you lower their standard of living they will do a better job. Moreover, the ministry could simply prevent their teachers from teaching at the cultural centers, without shutting the centers down.

Of course, this is assuming that improving teaching is the primary concern in the first place. If that is the case, many other things need to be done. The government knows exactly what these are. They will cost money. Shutting down these centers is a much cheaper option.

Paying our own way

2008-04-01T09:56:00.001+03:00

The parliament has passed a bill in which 5% of advertising revenue will be levied for support of culture. We already have a tax levied to support universities (which is not all used for this purpose). We also have a tax on liquor and cigarettes to support youth activities, and a tax on land deeds to support the disabled. MP's are also studying levying a tax on mobile phone bills to subsidize livestock feed.

So, in the end we will end up paying the regular taxes simply for the privilege of having a government. A wise use of resources indeed.

Oil, oil, go away; come again some other day

2008-03-29T16:33:00.004+03:00

Jordan is on its way to becoming the first country in the world where parliament will discuss whether or not there are petroleum deposits in its territory. Typically, this is the job of oil companies or of state geological surveys. But, since such an announcement is not forthcoming, well, then maybe our parliamentarians can do it.

I can see it. They will collect all the aeromagnetic surveys, the geophysical seismic sections, the geological maps, the well data (cuttings and the well log data), and after pouring over all of this data, they will develop depositional and structural models of the geology of Jordan. After that, they will vote on whether there is any oil in Jordan or not.

Obviously, this is the most ridiculous stunt that parliament can pull. But how did we get here?

Exploration for oil in Jordan began in the 1940’s, although none of the efforts was really whole hearted, because oil companies were more interested in the giant oil reservoirs of the Arabian Gulf (the nearest oil giant is about 1000 km away). Some interesting information can be found on page 189 here). Things only became interesting when Trans-Global Petroleum came into the picture in 1997. Their area of interest was in the southern basin of the Dead Sea. Trans-Global has had a rough relationship with the Jordanian government, with a culmination of a lecture at the Jordanian Geologists Association conference last year. During the conference, Trans-Global President, Nick Abraham, announced that his company has discovered massive amounts of oil in the concession area. The Natural Resources Authority was not amused, and tried to take the concession away from them. Later, Trans-Global backed away from the claim of finding oil. Subsequent developments include a newly established Hariri company (Porosity) gaining an 80% share of the Trans-Global concession through NRA coercion and Trans-Global suing the Jordanian government for 700 million dinars. A this stage, observers started to wonder what the intentions of the NRA are.

And to add another nail to the coffin of credibility of the NRA, a previously closed exploration well in the Serhan Basin in eastern Jordan started leaking oil. At the time, MP ‘Awwad Zawaideh (southern Bedouins) said that people are filling their cars directly from the well. Again, the NRA insisted that the well is not productive, and to solve the public relation problem they decided to seal the well with concrete. There. Problem solved.

Rula Hroub at Al Anbat wrote a series of articles about oil exploration in the country. In it, she revealed some very interesting and potentially embarrassing information. To me, the most interesting was how the NRA insisted on having meetings with Trans-Global at their headquarters and how they offhandedly dealt with investors who wanted to join Trans-Global. They only agreed to Hariri joining the concession, although his company has no history in oil exploration. However, why do you need expertise if your name is HARIRI?

Now, all of this does not mean anything about whether or not there are commercial oil deposits in the country or not. It just means that the government is acting suspiciously, which leads people not to trust them. Does that sound familiar?

A new Karamah

2008-03-22T12:08:00.001+02:00

During the king’s speech to commemorate the 40^th anniversary of the Karamah battle, he stated obliquely that “We know that every stage has its challenges and dangers, and we should always be ready to face these challenges, and to face any danger that may threaten our security and our stability. This is not solely the responsibility of the armed forces and the security apparatus, but the responsibility of every citizen of this country, each according to their position, role and responsibilities. There are always those, domestic and foreign, who do not wish well for this nation. It is our responsibility to be always at the highest state of vigilance, sense of responsibility and preparedness to confront any danger or attempt to tamper with the security or stability of this country”.

This statement could simply refer to terrorism, or could refer to the deeper challenges related to the economic and social state of the country. Many people feel that the economic situation is being used as a leverage to force Jordan into submission vis a vis solving the issue of Palestine on it’s soil. This is not an unreasonable assumption, as our Arab brethren can easily and painlessly relieve the country of its current predicament. The fact that they are not willing to do so is quite puzzling, and can not be explained except in this context.

Now, if this is the case, I believe that the people need to know. If it is not the case, they need to know as well. There are no convincing answers, and so we are faced with either explaining all of this in terms of political pressure or of embezzlement. If we are being asked to sacrifice for a cause, then we should know what the cause is.

Now, if we are being asked to sacrifice in order to withstand Israeli and American pressure to absorb more Palestinian refugees, with all of the social, political and economic ramifications that this will entail on Palestine and on Jordan, the economic crunch that we are facing will become understandable, bearable and even manageable. The Karamah battle showed that we have the sense of sacrifice and ability to persevere and to prevail. Facing this challenge forthrightly and honestly will bring out our sense of duty and our determination, and, I believe, will be good for the character of our society. Nahid Hattar is even using the anniversary of the Karamah battle to call for preparation for war. I don’t think that this is in the cards, but maybe we need a grand challenge to bring out the best in us.

Good cop, bad cop

2008-03-18T09:21:00.004+02:00

Recently, the king announced a massive housing program dubbed "Honorable housing for an honorable life". Over 100,000 housing units will be constructed all over the country over the next five years in order to help low and limited income people find affordable housing. The government will provide the land and the infrastructure, and contractors from the private sector will build the housing at their expense. In exchange for the land and infrastructure, the contractors will give half of the units to the government, and will sell the other half at their own discretion. This novel scheme will allow the government to sell the apartments at low prices (around 15,000 JD), and the banks will provide long term financing. Everybody should be happy, so it is hoped.

And yesterday, the king ordered to the government to delay raising the prices of liquefied petroleum gas and livestock feed until the end to the year. This delay will cost the budget 160 million JD. Everybody is happy here, as well.

Actually, the king is asking the government to spend money that is not in the budget, which is not allowed. Article 49 of the constitution clearly states that "Verbal or written orders of the King shall not release the Ministers from their responsibilities". Of course, the parliament will willingly amend the budget to allow the expenditure, but in a normal system this would not be taken for granted.

The thing is, some columnists erroneously see these initiatives as the king intervening to "correct" the policies of the government, which only take into consideration the financial and not the social ramifications of economic decisions. Of course, while some might want this impression to take hold, it is a quite preposterous thesis. Economic policy since king Abdullah took the throne has not changed significantly, despite the fact that we have had six prime ministers (who were chosen by the king). I am sure that if the king wanted a different economic policy, then he would have found a PM who would be happy to oblige. But he did not. It may be true that uncontrolable factors may be at play that may be limiting the room for maneuvering, but it would be wrong to simply blame the government (any government) for that.

And people are not fooled. Despite the fact that the most draconian economic decisions have been made by PM Dahabi, recent a public opinion poll show that his popularity has not changed since he took office. Clearly, people do not view him as being such a bad cop.

Just saying.

Defending corruption

2008-03-13T10:46:00.002+02:00

Fahed Fanek today is criticising the financial and economic committee of the parliament for referring a potential corruption case to the prosecutor general. The committee had studied a report by the audit bureau, which stated that a decision by the Social Security board of directors to buy the failing Zara Hotel in Ma'in was improperly made. According to the bureau report, the shares were bought outside the stock exchange, and the price paid was 80 million dinars over the value of the real assets of the company.

According to Fanek, decision makers in such case should be immune from prosecution, because following up such cases will cause them to shy away from difficult decisions. What he does not say is that the decision to buy the shares was a political and not an investment decision. The government at the time wanted the venture to keep going, and really didn't care what the economic prospects were, because it was not coming out of their own pockets.

I have written before about how the government tries to use the social security fund for political expediency (with a reference to another Fanek article defending the government for doing this). This is a recurring issue, and now that the government is planning issuing a new law to curtail retirement benefits of the social security, it is a good time to put all past decisions into the light.

Political pressure and corruption will always be a threat to social security funds. This is precisely why there should be no immunity for board members of the SSC. Decision makers in the social security investment board should be held accountable so that they resist political pressure from the government. This is the best way to protect them from this pressure and it is a good way to protect our money.

More on the new oil policy

2008-03-12T10:05:00.001+02:00

Yesterday, I talked about how the government is insisting on monopolizing oil imports and pricing in the country. Today, Ali Rawashdeh has a report in Al Arab al Yawm concerning the new plans for the oil sector.

The most interesting part of the report is the agreement between the government and the Jordan Petroleum Refinery Company to regulate relationships after the ending of the concession agreement. The company will get one out of four licenses to distribute oil products in the country.

Noteworthy is that the agreement stipulates that distribution companies that will be set up will be obliged to buy 75% of their fuel from the JPRC.

Kind of defeats the purpose, don’t you think?

Slick liberalization

2008-03-11T21:16:00.002+02:00

Today, I chuckled as I read Samih Ma’aitah’s piece. In it, he earnestly asks questions about how petroleum products are priced, the cost of the crude oil that we buy and the relationship between the two. I don’t know if he is being naïve or being clever.

I have pointed out previously that the numbers that the government feeds us on this issue don’t make sense. It is almost as if the numbers are put out to confuse rather than to explain.

The government has recently liberated the price of oil products, but it has not liberated the oil market. This means that they retain the monopoly on importing and marketing oil, set the price they feel is appropriate and, thus far, don’t allow the private sector share in the bounty. Nobody is suggesting that government control of prices is meant to protect consumers.

When the issue of the expiration of the 50 year contract with the Jordan Petroleum Refining Company showed up a couple of years ago, the initial statements suggested that the market will be opened and competition between different companies will result. Ziad Manaseer opened a chain of high end modern gas stations in anticipation of this. Since then, the contract has expired and the government has dragged its feet on issuing legislation and regulations to allow for real liberalization to occur. I guess 50 years wasn’t enough time to think about this and decide what to do next.

Today, a report in Al Ghad says that a group of industrialists want to set up a company to import and distribute oil products, because obviously feel that they can get a better deal this way than buying the oil from the government. One investor says that he hopes that the government will encourage this step and take the necessary steps to create the proposed company. His statement suggests that he probably realizes that the government is not interested in any competition in the energy market, all the statements supporting a market economy not withstanding.

A call for civil obedience

2008-02-28T18:12:00.001+02:00

Considering the massive effort being put into enforcing the new traffic law, it seems appropriate for people to take action in response. Here is my proposal:

Nobody honestly believes that the purpose of this campaign is to improve driving behavior and conditions, and since considerable investment has been placed in buying new civilian cars, radar equipment, cameras and so forth, the best way to respond to this highway robbery is to abide strictly to the speed limit.

I mean it. Today I went to Irbid, and on the way about 8 patrols were stopping cars. As for me, I used my cruise control to adjust my speed every few minutes (whenever the speed limit changes). It took me a few minutes longer, but I managed to avoid being stopped. I have vowed that they will not take another dinar from me for any traffic violations.

Imagine if we all decide to do this. Nobody will be fined, and the government will lose the investment that it made. What better way to lift our collective middle finger to our insatiably greedy government?

Shrinking Jordan

2008-02-27T18:10:00.003+02:00

In another example of using media to hype bad policy, a number of traffic accidents in the last months have been used as a pretext to keeping the temporary traffic law on the books. This, despite the fact that the lower house of parliament rejected this legislation.

Now, the 80km drive from Amman to Irbid takes about 1 ½ hours. The highway has no less than 6 patrols looking for speeders. Most of the road has speed limits set at 80 or 90 km per hour.

Now, in principle there should be no objection to controlling speed. However, the speed limits are much lower than any reasonable driver would feel comfortable adhering to. To be blunter, one feels like an idiot driving at 70 km per hour on some of the stretches. It is obvious that these limits were not placed based on consideration of road conditions, but were set simply to entrap drivers.

In the final analysis, this short lighted approach of money grabbing will lead people to restrict their travels outside Amman to the bare minimum. The fines are too high and the limits are too low and the road has become too unpleasant. In the final analysis, this will lead to even more isolation for cities outside Amman. Who needs to leave Amman and invest someplace else anyway?

The herd mentality

2008-02-24T20:12:00.002+02:00

Well. The CARTOONS are back. The parliament has denounced reprinting them, and a number of newspapers are planning on publishing a “joint response”. Even Jihad Momani, who was fired from his job and jailed for reprinting “the CARTOONS” has joined the act, bravely standing up for “the Prophet”. Time was that people took pride in expressing their individuality. Not any more. Now, it is chic to think, say and act just like everybody else. Scour as you may, you would be hard pressed to find anybody in the Arab world defending freedom of expression.

Oh please, please, ask me this question:

Q: But Khalaf, this is a spontaneous reaction to insults to the Prophet. Would you deprive people of expressing their feelings?

K: No. Express you feeling all you want. Here is the point. Earlier this month, the (dis) information ministers of the Arab World met in Cairo. They issued a “charter” for regulating satellite television stations. This charter states that broadcast material should not undermine "social peace, national unity, public order and traditional values" or "defame political, national and religious symbols." It demands "adherence to objectivity, sincerity and respect for the dignity of countries and their national sovereignty."

So, in order to gain support for this pathetic attempt at turning back time, what would be a better time than now to revive the CARTOONS issue? Before it was taken out of the freezer and thawed out, the press was rejecting this charter. No mention of it any more.

Q: So, people are being manipulated into accepting restrictions on their freedoms through this issue.

K: Well, DUH!

What's up with me?

2008-02-24T12:46:00.002+02:00

As some of my friends have noticed, I have not been blogging for a while. While I have always said that this blog is not about me, it is sometimes impossible segregate my blogging from my private life. The passing of my dear father recently is an example of this, as it has has put me into a passive and introspective mood.

My father was an important and inspirational part of my life. He was a person who was never afraid to stake out controversial positions, in public or private matters. More importantly, no matter how outrageous some of his ideas initially seemed, in the end he would almost always convince those around him of what he thought. Needless to say, growing up with an intelligent and strong willed father like mine required the development some level of stubbornness, just to be able to preserve one's unique personality.

My father didn't like the idea of blogging anonymously. More recently, he has been encouraging me to write under my own name in a "real" media outlet. In fact, I have written occasionally in some newspapers (in Arabic), but blogging kind of focuses a person to write more regularly (until now). He would say, why waste your time writing that blog? Nobody knows who you are! At that point, I would retreat to my now well developed stubbornness.

But after his sudden passing, many premises in my life became open to re-examination. The least of these was whether I should continue blogging. How much of what I have been doing has been rebelliousness as opposed to good judgment?

Anyway, I am getting closer to the position that I am doing fine the way I am, although I am still not sure about whether I want to continue to blog, anonymously or not. I may abandon this one and start a new one later using my real name. I am not sure if I would write the same way if people know who I am.

Any insight?

An illigitimate issue

2008-01-12T18:05:00.000+02:00

In the last couple of months, the media has been interested in various cases of abandoned infants, who mostly were born out of wedlock. Being the type of conservative society it is in Jordan, the mothers of these children face dire consequences. The babies are placed in garbage bins or left at doors of mosques.

According to a report in Al Ghad, 36 such children were dealt with through the ministry of social development last year, as opposed to 28 from the year before. In a country where there is a child born every three minutes, the birth of 0.02% of children under these conditions is hardly remarkable, and would hardly warrant mention were it not for the salacious interest in premarital sex.

The government, interested in diverting attention from more substantial problems (like feeding and educating the other 99.98% of children born in the country) has created a committee to study the “phenomenon” of children of “unknown lineage”. The committee includes representatives of the ministries of social development, health, justice, Islamic affairs, and interior, as well the family protection establishment. According to the undersecretary of the ministry of social development, the committee will study the “issue”, and recommend legislative changes “commiserate with the size of the problem and efforts to control it”.

It gets better.

The same Al Ghad report cites unidentified “experts” who blame the “phenomenon” on the lack of deterrent legislation against premarital sex, rising prices, poverty, unemployment, globalization, technological advancement, population growth and integration of heterogeneous groups into society.

The implication is that there were never horny young people in Jordan until sex was thrust upon us by the internet, satellite TV and nasty outsiders with no morals. I must assure everybody that Jordanians always loved SEX. They like to talk about SEX. They like to joke about SEX. They like to fantasize about sex, and yes, they like to practice sex. They always have and they always will, and no amount of preaching will ever change that.

Of course, in the old days, the horny adolescents were married off when they were in their teens (not to suggest that there was no premarital sex even then). Modern social and economic constraints now prevent early marriages.

This is not to say that getting sex nowadays is not easier than before (apparently it is). But this not a reflection of increased desire, but of reduced repression. Repression has its own downsides, like pedophilia, sexual harassment, incest, rape and a dangerous pursuit of heavenly virgins . Not to mention blindness and hairy palms.

Of course, many commentators are shedding tears over degrading morals and lost innocence. Give me a break.

Anyway, the whole “issue” is that of illegitimate children. Will our august committee come up with practical advice, like sexual education or protection and support of the mothers, or will its report be another sermon? Whatever they do, the government now has a social issue on which there are no concrete answers. We will be able to chew on this for years to come, as standards of living decline, and education and health services deteriorate.

But why should we worry about those issues? People are having SEX!

Killing the goose

2008-01-08T17:51:00.000+02:00

I believe that one of the most important pillars of social stability in Jordan is the prospect of upward mobility. People are willing to forfeit their desire for economic justice if they feel that their children will be afforded an opportunity for a better life. This is why people are willing to deprive themselves, are willing to sell their assets and are even willing to go hungry for the sake of sending their kids to university. Simply said, Jordanians view a university education as being an indispensable key to economic and social advancement. This attitude has led to some of the highest levels of university graduates in the world.

And this has been a boon for the Jordanian state. Hundreds of thousands (600 thousand in the Gulf alone) of well educated Jordanian expatriates send home over two billion dinars a year, making up 18% of the GNP. The government doesn’t need to find them jobs, and they support their families so that they are not a burden on the state. So far, this has been successful formula that partially concealed the government’s failure to create enough jobs for everybody, kept the economy afloat and helped sustain the social peace.

So, why would anybody tinker with such a success story?

I wrote a couple of years ago about the financial problems at state universities. Following that, the government of Adnan Badran promised to gradually pay off the debts of these universities. While financial conditions were still weak, it looked like there might be a sustainable future for the higher education system in the country. Some people were still skeptical about future designs on the structure of higher education, specifically, questions were raised about the desire to raise university tuition fees and the ultimate desire to privatize the universities. A campaign calling itself dhabahtoona (essentially meaning you are killing us) was started in order to protest and raise awareness. The campaign is vocal but has yet to gain much traction.

A couple of days ago, the minister of higher education announced that government “support” of the universities will be reduced by 5 million dinars this year, and said that universities should become self funding. Dhabahtoona held a press conference to highlight this development, and once again pointed out that the government is ripping off the universities by not giving them their full due of the university fees tax. The bottom line is that the government is treating the universities as bad investments, while in fact they are major assets that help sustain the country economically and socially. Starving these institutions will not be favorable to students, families, the society or the state. It will be more like killing the goose that lays the golden egg.

Of course, this latest announcement comes in the context of all kinds of other challenges to the living standards of Jordanians. It looks like the government is not content with lowering current standards of living, but wants to rob us of hope for the future as well.

And what is life without hope?

Don't worry. Be happy.

2008-01-04T17:24:00.000+02:00

The government is trying hard to assure everybody that impending disaster is not around the corner, despite all the evidence to the contrary. The PM is saying that the effect of lifting subsidies on the economy will not be significant. Of course, the biggest worry is not how this will affect the economy, but how it will affect people.

It is hoped that the removing taxes on food will be an appropriate placebo. The head of the food merchants association, Khalil Al Haj Tawfiq, is vacillating, saying that stocks that have already been taxed need to be depleted before consumers feel the change. According to Haj Tawfiq, this should take a couple of months, which is long enough for people to have forgotten. Not to worry. Haj Tawfiq promises that if the merchandise was already exempt, then consumers will feel the effect of the 0% reduction right away.

Of course, when taxes are raised, merchants swiftly raise prices, even on stocks that were not taxed.

The prime minister is asking the private sector (nicely) to lower prices and raise salaries for their workers. Obviously, this is meaningless. Jamil Nimri suggests that the government goes back to fixing prices. I believe that a better solution is to activate anti-monopoly laws. Free markets can work only if mechanisms are used to enforce such laws, and jail a couple of fat cats found to be fixing prices. Right. Like that will happen.

The government also wants us to take solace that they promised not to raise the lowest category of electricity use, which are residential users who consume less than 160 kilowatt hours per month. The problem with this is that many people have gone to heating with electricity instead to diesel, LPG or kerosene. This means that few people will be able to meet the low consumption requirements needed to take advantage of the government’s generosity. After 160 kilowatt hours, all bets are off, and nobody knows how high the tariffs will go.

Even the ministry of agriculture is trying to make people feel good. Today, they are assuring people that the lack of rain will not affect crops. I never knew that.

Anyway, don’t worry. Be Happppy!

Public-private partnership

2008-01-02T22:46:00.000+02:00

In a dramatic move, the government has decided to lift taxes and customs duties on 13 basic commodities. The hope is that removal of the 4% sales tax on these foodstuffs will lead to relief and jubilation. This depends on the food importers and merchants lowering their prices for a corresponding amount. The government says that they will intervene if they don’t.

I used to by a kilo of rice (Sunwhite or Tiger) for about 25 piasters. The other day, my wife brought home a 2 kilo package for 1.65 dinars, or about 82 piasters per kilo. According to the latest mercantile exchange information, US produced rice ranges in cost from 22 to 28 dollars per hunderweight (100 pounds). So, each pound costs between 22 and 28 cents. Shipping for the US to Aqaba is about 6 cents per ton. So, the cost of rice reaching Aqaba should range from 43 to 51 piasters (assuming they are sending us the high grade stuff. Ha Ha.). Add to that other costs like insurance, retail costs and so forth, and one would expect the price to the consumer should range from 50 to 60 piasters.

So, who is making the extra 22 to 31 piasters on the kilo of rice? The 4% sales tax accounts for about 2 piasters. I am sure that there will be no problem in subtracting that. However, it seems clear that there is massive gouging by the importers, who apparently have agreed not to undercut each others prices. The head of the importers’ association is happy with the lowering of tariffs, and promises to cut prices accordingly.

Will the government actually do something to alleviate the effects of price fixing on the consumer? They have the legal tools to do this. I wouldn’t count on it, however. Food importers have become a political force to be reckoned with. A record number of them ran for parliament last time, and one of them actually won (Tareq Khouri; Amman third). One again, the game of mutual accommodation between government and "the private sector" will come at the expense of the average Jo. What else is new? Besides, we are so used to theatrics that we would not know any real positive action if we saw it.

Waiting for shit to hit the fan

2007-12-27T17:19:00.000+02:00

According to plans, the New Year will witness final lifting of subsidies on fuel. The 2008 budget carries no provisions for subsidies, and the government is promising to spend 300 million dinars on a “social safety net”, which includes a pay raise for government workers to offset the expected effects.

According to reports, the pay raises will be in the ball park of 30 dinars for people making less than 300 dinars per month, and lower amounts for people who make more. On the other hand, the minister of energy expects that the cylinder of liquefied petroleum gas, which is currently sold at 4.75 dinars will go up to a whopping 9.90 dinars when the subsidies are lifted. If a family is using LPG for heating, it can easily use 6 cylinders per month, effectively wiping out the pay raise in a single blow. Of course, LPG is only one commodity of many that will become more expensive.

The current pricing scheme (as far as anybody can tell) overprices gasoline and uses to surplus to lower the costs of other products such as diesel and kerosene. The previous government tried to impose a “quality tax” on gasoline, but the parliament refused. I read today that the government will try this again. It is not clear whether the point is to use the money to continue subsidizing diesel and LPG or just to raise money. The government sometimes imposes taxes for a specific purpose and then decides to pocket the money instead (like the University Fees Tax).

Anyway, most people are pessimistic, and expect a massive wave of inflation that will be difficult for poorer people to handle. Surprisingly, nobody thinks that a special parliamentary session to discuss inflation will lead to anything useful. I wonder why.

So we are in a wait and see mode. Everybody expects a lower standard of living, the question is how much lower, and how will society cope?

Parliament rejects the new traffic law

2007-12-26T17:51:00.000+02:00

There has been a lot of grumbling about this law, and it is not surprising that the parliament decided to reject it out of hand. The discussions on the issue in the parliament centered on the constitutionality of how it was passed, the level of fines, giving policemen a cut of the fines, and the definition of what a “driver” is (it classified sheepherders as drivers).

Anyway, the legislation is now in the senate, where they may either uphold the rejection, modify the law, ratify the legislation (in which case it has to be sent back to the lower house) or shelve the issue, in which case the law will stay in force as a temporary law. Some legislators worried that this is what the senate might do. When the lower house rejected the income tax law almost two years ago, it looked like the senate wanted to keep the law enforced by not taking up the issue. Pressure from the press and the people forced them to eventually reject the legislation. Abdlkarim Kabariti, who spearheaded the rejection in the senate, was rewarded by not being re appointed in the current makeup.

This time it looks like the senate will have to deal with this issue promptly. In an extraordinary move, the head of the PSD (police) has issued orders not to enforce the law until the parliament ratifies it. So, the law is on the books but the police are refusing to enforce it.

Anyway, there is a whole suite of problems related to the traffic situation in the country. These include poor pedestrian behavior (on whom there is no legal burden to take care of him/her self), lax enforcement of existing legislation, forgiving social attitudes towards reckless drivers and bad roads. Any serious attempt to improve the traffic situation should take all of these factors into account. Poor driving should not turn into just another cash cow for the government.

Malaise

2007-12-18T11:22:00.000+02:00

The parliament has finally given their vote of confidence to Nader Dahabi’s government. They gave him a record 97 (out of 110) yes votes. This has been called a “golden confidence” vote, in an allusion to the PM’s last name, which means golden.

Now, the farcical nature of the number of votes in favor of the government would not have been so annoying had it not be preceded by a week of discussions and posturing on the issue. During this week, we heard all sorts of valid and invalid complaints about this and former governments, public freedom and participation laws, economic policy and the nature of the makeup of the cabinet. A newbie or a naïve person would have concluded that the government is in trouble. A more experienced observer would have known that it is all for show, and would have predicted such a result.

It is understandable that MP’s want to show off their oratory to their constituents, and to implicitly suggest that they know what is going on. After doing that, the next logical step would be to vote in a matter consistent with your rhetoric. Why did the MP’s treat Dahabi and his cabinet as if they are the long awaited saviors? On the other hand, why didn’t they just shut up in the first place?

The executive branch still holds inordinate power in the country. Deputies who want to show results to their constituents do not want to get on the wrong side of the government. Constituents are only looking for small gains anyway. Getting a soldier hired, a teacher transferred, a school or a health clinic built. In a more perfect system, deputies would not have a role in minutiae of administration, and they would earmark money in the budget for schools and clinics without needing to appease cabinet members. The voters treat the parliament with cynicism, the parliament treats the government with cynicism, the parliament treats the government with cynicism and the press is attempting to take the whole thing seriously, and with a straight face.

Rami Khouri has an excellent article on the political situation on the country (thanks Mohanned). It boils down to this: Nobody thinks that it is worth it to tinker with the system. I suggest reading the whole thing.

Anyway, for all the MP’s who may read this, I say: Shut up. Attend the sessions and committee meetings. Do your job. Be fair and enlightened. I will like you better that way.

Did I mention shut up?

Pay raises

2007-12-11T22:30:00.000+02:00

In his presentation to parliament prior to the upcoming confidence vote, the PM, Nader Dahabi vowed to raise salaries of public sector workers and retirees. This is part of a compensation program in exchange for lifting subsidies on fuel derivatives, which is planned for the next fiscal year.

This pay raise is due to cost over 300 million dinars. Assuming that 300,000 military, security and civil employees and retirees benefit from it, then the average salary will go up by about 1000 dinars per year, or a little more than 80 dinars per month. Presumably, private sector employers will be asked (nicely) to raise their salaries by similar amounts.

This is a rather generous raise compared to previous salary adjustments. The government has taken to token raises of 5 and 10 dinars per month in the last few years, which did little to compensate for the effect of inflation on salaries. The last time fuel prices were raised, the government resorted to a cash payout gimmick, ostensibly to help out the poor. As might be expected, the mechanism was inefficient and demeaning, and did little to actually improve the well-being of the people it was supposed to help.

Obviously, some are concerned that increased liquidity will actually fuel inflation by increasing demand. While this is a concern, much of the inflation is not caused by local economic conditions, but driven by increased costs of imports.

On the other hand, a recent survey by the department of statistics shows that the average difference between income and spending for Jordanian families results in a deficit of about 1300 dinars per year. With the expected wave of inflation caused by lifting of subsidies, even this raise will do little to fill the existing gap. Until this gap is filled, it is doubtful that the increased liquidity will be a significant factor in driving inflation.

One also worries that the scale of this raise is a prelude to a massive increase in fuel prices, which may dwarf the effects to this pay raise. This is what remains to be seen.

The temporary traffic law

2007-12-06T16:25:00.000+02:00

In the final days before leaving office, Marouf Bakhit’s cabinet issued a temporary traffic law. Ostensibly, it is meant to toughen punishments on traffic violations. However, it might be yet another gambit to collect more money, as Hilmi Asmar (Addustour) concludes.

According to the constitution, temporary laws can be issued only under dire situations when parliament is not in session. There has been no massive increase in traffic violations, accidents or fatalities. There was nothing “urgent” that could not have waited until parliament convened. If this issue was so urgent, why wasn’t it presented to the previous parliament?

The media initially concentrated on the tougher punishments, largely in the form of (much) higher fines. It turns out that there is more to it. Whole classes of vehicles that used to register as private vehicles now have to register as commercial vehicles, requiring (of course) much higher registration fees. Gas distributors are threatening to raise prices, and manufacturing companies are implicitly threatening to let go of workers who need to be transported from distant areas. It is not obvious why the new registration rules will lower traffic accidents.

Traffic violations are a significant problem in Jordan, and there is nothing wrong with punishing reckless drivers. However, not all fatalities are from reckless drivers. Often, pedestrians are reckless, and drivers run into them because they shoot into traffic from behind blind spots or in areas where it is impossible to slow down. In these areas, pedestrian bridges are often built to solve the problem. Pedestrians insist on ignoring them, endangering themselves and other people using the road. In case they have an accident, the law always places blame on the driver, no matter what the circumstance.

Therefore, if the true intention was to lower deaths on the road, it would have been useful to reevaluate the law whereby a driver is held to blame even if somebody jumps off of a building onto his parked car. Of course, how can the government milk people that way?

Adnan Badran tried a similar gimmick of passing four laws unconstitutionally before leaving office. At the time, the parliament swiftly rejected these laws out of hand. Let’s hope the new parliament has the same inclinations.

Fools rush in...

2007-12-02T22:35:00.000+02:00

Abdulhadi Majali has been elected yet again as the speaker of the house. This time, the seat was contested by Falak Jama’ani, who is in her second term in the parliament. Heavyweights such as Abdelrauf Rawabdeh and Sa’ad Hayel Surour haven’t even bothered to try in the last couple of years. Instead, they got Mamdouh Abbadi to be elected as the speaker’s deputy in exchange for their support of Abdulhadi. Falak insisted on running. As they say, fools rush in where angels fear to tread. She was beaten 80 to 21.

That adds up to one hundred and one. What about the other nine, you may ask. Eight ballot papers had no name and the ninth was for Khalil Atieh, who wasn’t running.

Now, I understand that sometimes one is faced with life-changing decisions, and it is difficult to make a choice. But for the life of me, what is so complicated about this one? I mean, if a deputy can’t make a simple decision like choosing he he/she wants to be as a speaker, then what the hell are they doing there in the first place? What is going to happen when they are faced with the budget, the new income tax law, and other, important, issues? Simply put in a blank piece of paper? I have a better suggestion: GO HOME!

A new government

2007-11-25T17:44:00.000+02:00

The new government was sworn in today. There is a new prime minister, Nader Dahabi. But for some odd reason, it looks very much like the old government. Eight ministers were held over from the previous government, including the ministers of interior and finance. Also held over is Nasser Joudeh, who was somewhat upgraded from the position of spokesman to the position of “Minister of state for media and communication”, whatever that means. He is joined by another son-in-law of Prince Hassan, Ala’a Bataineh (minister of transport), who is doubly qualified, being the son of a former minister as well. This places him at an advantage over Sahel Majali, who is only the lowley son of Abdulhadi Majali, who once carried the same portfolio of minister of public works and housing.

Of course, nepotism isn’t the only criterion. Some were recycled from previous governments. Salah Bashir academic background will make him a perfect minister of ~~justice~~ ~~trade and industry~~ foreign affairs. And engineer Muzahem Muheisen will be a perfect minister of ~~labour~~ AGRICULTURE! These multi-talented people also have an advantage over Raed Abu Saud, who held the ministry of water in the past, and does not seem suitable for a different task. Maybe this time he will make more of a mark. If you at first you don’t succeed…….

There are a few new names that I haven’t heard of. I am looking forward to reading about their backgrounds tomorrow. Nobody seems to be in a hurry to talk about it.

New Prime Minister

2007-11-21T21:52:00.000+02:00

Ammon is reporting that Marouf Bakhit has resigned his office, and that the king is planning on naming the current chief commissioner of the Aqaba Special Economic Zone, Nader Dahabi, in his place.

It is customary in Jordan to change governments after parliamentary elections. It allows for a fresh start. Bakhit served for about two years, which is a reasonable length of time by Jordanian standards. They have been somewhat rough, with a series of economic and security challenges. The economic challenges seem to be continuing, with the cost of oil being the biggest threat to the economy. The security threat was better handled, although this may have come at a cost of political freedoms and reform. The National Agenda has been shelved for the most part, and it may be time to blow the dust off of its massive volumes to see what might be done.

Nader Dahabi is the brother of the head of General Intelligence Department (mukhabarat), Mohammad Dahabi. Other, possibly less important, qualifications include having aeronautical engineering degrees and a master’s degree in public administration.

Essam Qadamani, who writes in Al Rai, has a nauseatingly fawning article on Dahabi’s achievements as Chief Commissioner at ASEZ. While the man may be able and accomplished, I would hope somebody will write about his weaknesses as well as his strengths. Ha ha.

Changing governments in Jordan is more of a sport than a functional necessity. The constraints on the office are large. However, an able PM with a decent team can and should make a difference. But in what direction? A better picture may be seen after the new cabinet is formed. Are we back to the reformers? Or will it be a continuation of the traditionalist approach of Bakhit? The mixture of having a military background and being the head of one of the most ambitious economic endeavors in the country is interesting.

The results

2007-11-21T10:23:00.000+02:00

I am finally in the mood to absorb some of the results of yesterday’s election. Some were expected, while others were less so.

The most stunning result was the devastating defeat of IAF candidates. Only six of the 22 candidates won, and with less than stellar results. Azzam Huneidi (Amman first) came in fourth, trailing behind Khalil Attieh, Ja’afar Abdullat and Hassan Safi. This district used to produce two IAF deputies as well as independent Abdulmin’im Abu Zant, who was a member of the IAF until he was dismissed from the movement after he defied the boycott decision in 1997. Mohammad Haj (Zerqa fourth) was dismissed from the movement this year after running without the IAF nomination. He beat the IAF candidate, Ja’afar Hourani in that district. No IAF candidate won in either Zerqa or Irbid.

Most of the old fixtures such as Abdulhadi Majali (Karak second), Abdelraouf Rawabdeh (Irbid second), Mamdouh Abbadi (Amman third), Sa’ad Hayil Srour (Northern Bedouins) and Abdulkarim Dughmi (Mafraq first) kept their seats. The most notable loser from this group was Hashem Dabbas (Belqa first). Thus, the more notable and heavyweight deputies will be there.

There will be seven women in the next parliament, after Falak Jama’ani (Madaba second) won the seat of that district outright. Nariman Rousan (Irbid fifth) almost won the seat for that district outright, but came short by only 14 votes. Reem Qasim (Zerqa third) won after she garnered a sympathy vote following her husband’s death a couple of weeks ago.

The election was won largely won on a tribal basis. Mustafa Hamarneh (Madaba first) attempted to break out of this mold, with an outspoken, liberal, inclusive approach. He lost to Riyad Ya’acoub. So much for polling data. Mohammad Bataineh (Irbid first) tried a similar track, with the same results. He couldn’t overcome having two competitors from the same tribe. No overt leftists seem to be represented in the next parliament.

Candidates catering and feeding grievances of Palestinian Jordanians, such as Najati Shakhshir and Tareq Khouri (Amman third) had mixed results. Shakhsir lost (after spending tons of money) and Khouri won (after spending tons of money). It is not obvious that this message resonated very much. Of course, the feeling is there.

In all, I am optimistic about the results. Only time will tell if this is misplaced or not.

Armed takeover of a voting station

2007-11-20T17:36:00.000+02:00

Ammon news is reporting that a group of armed men have taken over a poling station in the Jiza area east of the airport. They are holding the polling officers and the candidates’ representatives hostage and they are busy filling in ballot slips.

Taking things too far, I would say.

I voted

2007-11-20T16:42:00.000+02:00

Despite my cynical attitude towards these elections, I must keep up the optimist side in me. This is why I went and voted for somebody I trust and respect.

The organization was reasonable, and I was in and out in less than 10 minutes. My name was checked on the computer, and registered manually in a notebook. My ID card was pressed with a raised star and and the bottom left corner was snipped off. This, apparently, is to prevent multiple voting. I wrote the candidate's name on a voter slip, which was signed and stamped, and placed the slip in a clear plastic box. About 30 observers representing the candidates were in the room to monitor what happened.

Good Luck to Dr. Hazim el Naser.

George Galloway in Karak

2007-11-20T07:13:00.000+02:00

Ammon news is reporting that George Galloway has been seen campaigning for Fawwaz Zreiqat in Karak (First district).

It will be interesting to see if it will do him any good.

Why I’m not worried about “political money”

2007-11-19T14:03:00.000+02:00

A number of observers have been wringing their hands about vote buying. Being the way that I am, I really don’t see what the fuss is about. This is not the first election where there has been buying of votes, and money is translated to political influence all over the world. It is consistent with the trend towards market economy and privatization. Moreover, there are a number of benefits arising from this phenomenon. I will list them here.

1- Redistribution of wealth.

2- Increasing voter turnout and participation.

3- This will allow the breaking of monopolies of large tribes. There is no fundamental difference between somebody being elected because he has a large tribe that united in voting for him and somebody who buys votes. Neither is elected based on merit.

4- Deputies thus elected will be free of obligations towards constituents. By paying up front, the deputy will be able to do his job without having to compromise his position asking for favors for his constituents.

5- It will free us of the pretence of farcical political participation.

6- Rafig il misa’ad btisa’ad.

Campaign almost over

2007-11-19T10:22:00.000+02:00

The elections are scheduled for tomorrow. I am looking forward to getting rid of all of the banners and posters filling the streets. Aside from the visual insult, they are a constant reminder of the superficiality of our discourse.

What also hurts is that this visual pollution didn’t come cheap. Al Jazeera has reported that 150 million dollars have been spent on the campaign. At about 1000 candidates, this works out to an average of about 100,000 dinars per candidate. Obviously, there is a lot of discrepancy, with some spending millions and some spending a few thousand. Much of the visible spending is there for all to see. Other spending, such as transportation, food and sweets for supporters, and vote buying are less visible, yet still useful for circulating money through the economy.

Given that few candidates have much of a message, it is a wonder how much can be spent to say so little. The assumption being that the more you spend, the better the visibility and the higher the chances. It shouldn’t work that way, but Jordanians say “rafig il misa’ad btisa’ad”, i.e. hang out with the fortunate and you will be fortunate. The hope is that massive spending will give people a sense of inevitability. Obviously, this is a double-edged sward.

Big name candidates such as Abdelraouf Rawabdeh (Irbid second), Abdulhadi Majali (Karak second), Sa’ad Hayil Srour (Northern Bedouins) and Abdulkarim Dughmi (Mafraq first) really don’t need to spend that much, and they didn’t. Neither did the IAF candidates. On the other hand, Mamdouh Abbadi (Amman third) is well known, and still seems to have felt the need to have his face grace every electric pole in his district.

Anyway, tomorrow is near, and we will find out how effective all of this has been. If it is true that spending more money increases your chances, one wonders whether it is worth the cost to run. Let’s hope that it is not.

Who knows the issues?

2007-11-17T12:16:00.000+02:00

Regular readers would remember the debate over the income tax law last year, where the PM famously declared that “90% of Jordanians will be exempt from income tax”. At the time, the deputies didn’t think that was enough, raising the exemptions even higher. This led to the senate shelving the issue until now. Earlier, Adnan Badran passed an income tax law that was not particularly good, and this law was rejected by the lower house, and belatedly rejected by the senate.

I am reminding you because one of the questions posed to the parliamentary candidates in the Free Though Forum is phrased like this “In 2005, a proposal to modify the income tax law was made to unify the tax at 20%, regardless of income level. This was objected to in the senate. Do you support or object to such a law?”

Of course, the nature of the law was totally misrepresented in this question, whether it was referring to the Badran law or the subsequent draft. I went through the answers of all of the candidates on this, and none of them knew this. Not even Mamdouh Abbadi, Odeh Qawwas or Marwan Sultan (Amman Third), who were MPs at the time attempted to clarify the issue. Only Younis Jamra (Irbid first district) had a recollection of what happened.

Just so nobody gets their hopes too high.

Being cheated

2007-11-13T17:07:00.000+02:00

Today I almost ran over a few pedestrians as I laughed and listened to Mohammad Al Wakeel as he read the morning papers. It seems that some candidates for parliament in Irbid have filed police reports on some charlatans who convinced them that they can use magic to force people to vote for them. After they took JD 50 per vote, the candidates somehow figured out that they have been cheated.

Now, it has been said that a sucker is born every minute, so it is not really surprising that such a fraud can take place. The fact that the marks want to represent people in the parliament is not surprising either. I mean, there is no evidence that high caliber people are being recruited to run for parliament in the first place. In fact, the caliber that we are seeing is mostly quite substandard.

What made me laugh the most is how these candidates have the face to show up at the police station and complain. Here is an imaginary scenario of what happened:

Candidate: Officer, I am here to lodge a complaint.

Officer: OK. What is it?

Candidate: I think that I have been defrauded.

Officer: What do you mean “you think”? Were you defrauded or not?

Candidate: I can’t tell for sure until the elections.

Officer: Why not.

Candidate: Well, these guys showed up at my headquarters and told me that if I give them money, they can cast a spell on people to get them to vote for me.

Officer: I see.

Candidate: After they took the money and walked out the door, they started laughing hysterically.

Officer: So let’s see if I understand. You wanted to use magic to deprive people of their free will to choose who they want.

Candidate: Well, yes, I suppose.

Officer: Because you didn’t think that they would vote for you if they used their own mind.

Candidate: Yes.

Officer: OK. Did you check their credentials?

Candidate: No. They did have long beards and they recited the Qur’an.

Officer: Were they other candidates?

Candidate: No.

Officer: Did they show you their ID’s? Any proof that they are licensed to cast spells on people?

Candidate: No.

Officer: Did they have any academic training in these matters?

Candidate: I don’t know.

Officer: OK. To recap; these guys showed up, promised to perform miracles, had no credentials and you trusted them. Don’t you think that this is odd?

Candidate: Well, this is what I have been asking people to do for me for the last month.

Officer: OK. We will prosecute the frauds after the elections.

Will the government cheat?

2007-11-07T11:33:00.000+02:00

The head of the IAF, Zaki Bani Irshaid, is suggesting that the government is planning on cheating in the upcoming elections. His allegations are based on the refusal of the government to turn over lists of registered voters to the candidates. There is evidence that large scale voter transfers between districts have been allowed in order to help specific candidates. The voter lists have been previously posted and the deadline for objections on specific voters has passed. The government seems to want this question to go away.

There are also technical issues with the electronic linking between polling stations. These links are meant to allow voters to cast their ballot at any station in the district they choose, and to prevent them from voting at more than one station. The Islamists are concerned about the integrity of these connections, and that they may be manipulated to in fact allow multiple voting.

Added to this, the government seems to be reluctant to allow full scale monitoring by outside (local) observers. Today interested civil society organizations threatened to boycott the observation process, saying that the government will only allow them to observe from outside the stations, rather than from within the polling and counting places. They want the same treatment given in more democratic countries, such as Egypt and Yemen.

Now, the setup seems to be in place to rig the vote. It seems odd that despite the king’s insistence that the vote should be free and fair, the government has kept so many doors open for allegations of cheating.

Now, even if no cheating occurs, losers in the election will cite these questions to undermine the credibility of the results. But why would the government cheat? The IAF is only running 22 candidates, out of 110 members. Even if all of them win, which is unlikely, they will not form a significant block in the parliament (even if they collect 10 extra seats from ideological allies not on the IAF slate). The premise that the government will intervene against the IAF does not seem to make much sense (although the same could have been said of the municipal elections).

My hunch is that the government is planning to intervene on behalf of the IAF. The IAF slate was selected by top party officers and chosen as a message to government that they are not in search of a political takeover of the country. The relative moderates chosen were selected despite not being nominated by the rank and file of the party, many of whom are angry because of this, and are threatening to work against the slate. The government has an interest in the likes of Abdullatif Arabiyat (Belqa first district) and Irhail Gharaibeh (Amman third district) not be humiliated, as they still hope to keep a domesticated Islamist movement as their theatrical opposition. Their loss would again shift the face of the party to the more radical side.

So, there it is. If the IAF loses, they will claim that the government cheated, and if they win I will claim that they cheated. The best solution is to publish the list of registered voters, fix the polling locations and forget about the electronic link gambit and allow monitors to see what happens. In short, stop trying to act like a third rate banana republic.

Let them eat bread

2007-11-05T14:57:00.000+02:00

Mary Antoinette’s famous words were “let them eat cake”, in response to protests that people had no bread to eat. In Jordan, this has been reformulated by the government, who only think that they should subsidize bread.

If you have ever been to a bakery in Jordan, you probably have noticed people carrying out LARGE bags containing various sweet and salty cookies. It is sad to think that many families actually live on dunking these cookies in sweet tea. A meager diet that nobody should envy.

It turns out that having people eating like this is a luxury the government can’t afford. After lifting subsidies on cattle feed a couple of months ago, the market was in an awkward position where flour is cheaper than animal fodder. Obviously, this was an invitation to feed livestock bread.

So, the government partially lifted subsidies on wheat flour, thus allowing subsidies on the basic large loaves of bread. Other bakery products went up between 20 and 60%. So the alternative for poor people comes from the government “let them eat bread”.

What better timing than when people are immersed in an election campaign that is totally divorced from the needs to people? In any other country, this timing would have been studiously avoided for such a move. Not in Jordan. Here, the disconnect between politics and the welfare of people is too painful to discuss.

Of course, distortions beget distortions, and subsidies cause distortions. I would submit that a teacher working for JD 220 per month is subsidizing the government. When will this subsidy be lifted?

A response from Professor Sari Nasser

2007-11-05T12:57:00.000+02:00

I received this kind reply from Dr. Nasser, and as I promised I am posting it here.

I was surprised to learn that your impression of the Riz Khan interview was that I condone honor killing. All through my teaching years I have always stressed to my students that killing women in the name of honor is inhumane and despicable.
My former students could testify to this including Rana Husseini who has become a champion in the fight against this horrid activity.

In the Riz Khan interview I tried to show that this phenomenon could not be targeted by the enactment of laws alone. The problem lies in customs and traditions that seem to be stronger than the law. The way to eliminate this horrid practice is through teaching, raising people's awareness and through stronger penalties.

I really didn’t think that Dr. Nasser condoned honor killings, nor did I try to imply that. I simply thought that he could have mentioned “tougher penalties” in the interview as he has in this reply.

Best wishes to Professor Nasser and to all thoughtful and enlightened candidates.

Thoughts on the elections

2007-11-02T19:48:00.000+02:00

There have been a lot of complaints on the level of discourse of the elections, and the quality of the candidates. Much of the complaints stem from the lack of participation of political parties (except for the IAF), with people blaming the “one vote” voting law for this situation.

Now the current law is pretty stupid, allowing people to win by receiving less than 5% of the vote. But, despite protestations to the contrary, this is not why there is little intelligent discourse related to this election. The reason is that there is little intelligent discourse period.

I have been complaining almost since I started writing this blog over two years ago that there is no alternative to the Islamists or the government that they oppose. Neither the leftists nor the centrists could not get their act together, organizationally or ideologically during the last few years. The only serious effort to discuss real political/economic/social alternatives to the currently prevailing paradigms was offered by Nahid Hattar. But despite his best efforts, his cries have fallen on indifferent ears. This is our loss, not his.

So, what does this mean? Well, it may mean two things. Either that people are fundamentally happy with the way things are going or that they are too frustrated or cynical to believe that anything can change. If asked, people will say they are cynical, but do they really want change to begin with?

I find it hard to believe that the 1000+ candidates running for parliament do not contain any candidates that can inspire people’s imagination. Not one of the 1000! Why is that? Is it truly because they are all mediocre thinkers and/or orators? All of them? Or, is it as I suspect that people really are not interested in fundamentally changing the status quo, and politicians understand this.

It is hard to tell. I will get angry comments on this post, but I really don’t see any real anger out there. Feigned frustration, yes, but true anger is not out there. If it were, one of the 1000 candidates would be tapping in on it right now.

Duplicate names

2007-10-25T18:34:00.000+02:00

One of the (dirty) tricks played in elections here is the running of candidates with similar names. Typically, one of these candidates is paid to run in order to bleed off votes from a legitimate candidate. If you are in Irbid’s second district, voting for Husni Shiyyab will result in disqualifying your vote, because there are two candidates with the same name. Husni Ahmad Shiyyab is a political scientist and was a leftist deputy from 1989 to 1993; while his namesake Husni Fandi Shiyyab is a physician and a political novice.

In Ajloun's first district, you might vote for Mohammad Tu’meh Al Qudah. In this case, you will also waste your vote unless you differentiate between Mohammad Tu’meh Suleiman Al Qudah and Mohammad Tu’meh Oqleh Al Qudah, who are both running. One of them is an IAF candidate, but I won’t tell you which.

Cute, right?

Sari Nasser

2007-10-24T14:58:00.000+02:00

One interesting candidate in Amman’s third district is Professor Sari Nasser. Many graduates of the University of Jordan over a number of decades have taken his course, where he encouraged them to do community service as part of the course requirements. It is probably a safe bet to assume that if a significant percentage of his ex-students vote for him, then he would easily win.

Professor Nasser is interesting because he is a capable, urbane and enlightened sociologist.There are a number of professors running for parliament, but most of them are relatively young and have decided that being university lecturers is beneath their ambitions. If my estimates are right, Dr. Sari has reached the age of retirement (70 years) before starting his political career, and thus he is of a more altruistic breed.

I have been trying to figure out some of his views by surfing the web. I found this interview which somewhat troubled me.

Now, I have no problem with his characterization of the issue of so-called honor killings. What concerns me is the lack of any apparent moral indignation. His attitude is somewhat of a shrug of the shoulder and assurances that the problem will go away eventually by itself.

To be sure, the interview is not part of a political campaign. But still, there is no suggestion that laws allowing lenient sentences for murderers should be tightened as a part of the package of societal change. I would like to have heard that from him. The interview was conducted in May 2007, so running for parliament must have been on his mind back then.

Then there is this, where he complains about western influence on the structure of family in the Arab world, assigning many societal ills to this influence. I am not sure what the implications of these views would be for an MP, but is does strike me as being too conservative for my taste. However, I wish I could get a copy of his election manifesto. If anybody can get it for me, I would be grateful.

I hope that people would ask candidates point blank what they think about legislations related to “honor” killing. If anybody can clarify Nasser’s positions for me, I will gladly display them prominently. I would so much like to be wrong about my impressions.

Hattar not running

2007-10-22T15:01:00.000+02:00

Nahid Hattar, with support for a group called the “Jordanian Social Left”, has been considering running for the Christian seat in the third district of Amman. He is one of the few candidates who have coherent opposition ideas about issues related to wealth distribution, the role of the state, privatization and other economic and social priorities. I reviewed his book a while back. In it he expounded on his themes.

In an announcement issued by the JSL, it was announced that Hattar would actually not run, and complained that vote buying, transfer of votes for the benefit of specific candidates, political and logistical support for specific candidates as well as manipulation of electoral alliances for the benefit of specific candidates had poisoned his chance to win.

It was always hard to imagine Hattar winning in the third district. His message is not really designed for the compradors and petty bourgeois who dominate the district. And while he may have some tribal base there, he has pointedly rejected using that card as a matter of principle (although he would have been happy to ally himself with the Islamists, had they agreed).

Hattar would have had a better chance in a working-class district. The Christian seat in the first district in Zerqa would have probably been a better bet. Bassam Haddadin won that seat in 2003 with a mere 3065 votes (4.6% of the votes cast). The competition on the seat this year is meager as well.

It is too bad that Hattar will not be in the next parliament. He has refreshing if somewhat controversial ideas.

The pollsters

2007-10-22T09:12:00.000+02:00

Two men who made their names conducting opinion polls are running for the upcoming parliamentary elections. Mustafa Hamarneh of the Strategic Studies Center at the University of Jordan is running in the first district of Madaba and Musa Shtaiwi of the Jordan Social Research Center is running in the first district in Balqa (Salt).

Unfortunately, no opinion polls have ever been conducted to attempt to determine winners in parliamentary elections. Hence, most people are usually surprised by the some of the results. However, these candidates should have a better idea about their chances of winning, being pollsters and all.

Or do they?

The women's quota

2007-10-10T13:28:00.000+02:00

In order to ensure participation of women in the parliament, the election law has set aside six seats for the women who, countrywide, receive the highest percentage of votes in their districts. If a woman wins outright, her seat is not considered to be part of the quota. The choice of giving the women with the highest percentage of votes rather than the highest absolute number of votes is to ensure fairness between districts of different numbers of voters. While on paper this looks fine, in the last election it led to the election of women with as few as 365 votes. Worse, most of these ladies have attitudes towards women's rights ranging from ambivalent to hostile, much the same as their male colleagues.

Smaller tribes who have little hope of mustering enough votes for an outright victory have taken to nominating women, in the hope that the lower number of votes needed will give them a better chance. Clearly, as in the last election, their chances will be better in smaller districts where they can get a higher percentage of the vote. In any case, hope springs eternal, and there are a large number of ladies running this year, which in itself is a good development.

It is ironic to remember, however, that the first woman to win a parliament seat in Jordan did so without this quota system. Toujan Faisal won a seat in the third district of Amman in 1993 designated for Circassians and Chechens. She turned out to be too much of a maverick for the government's taste, and in 1997 they mustered enough votes to oust her by heavy support towards a hence after unheard of candidate named Nayef Moola. In 2003, they moved the Circassian/Chechen seat to the sixth district, so that the politicized electorate of the third district couldn't vote for her again. There have been rumors that Toujan might run in the fifth district, but it is not clear if her application for candidacy will be allowed. She was convicted in 2002 of slandering the prime minister, Ali Abu Ragheb, accusing him of using his position to raise insurance premiums for mandatory automobile policies. Abu Ragheb had major stakes in a number of insurance companies. Anyway, she was released by a special pardon by the king, possibly making her ineligible to run again.

So there you are. Popular women with a real base of support are eliminated from running, while conservative women with little to contribute are shoehorned in. It must be nice to be able to make your own rules.

The IAF slate

2007-10-08T17:07:00.000+02:00

After weeks of speculation, the IAF yesterday announced it's list of candidates for the upcoming election. It seems that the MB actually had the final word in naming the candidates, choosing 22 to run in 18 districts. The slate is dominated by the moderate wing of the party, including old timers such as Abdullatif Arabiyat (Salt) and Hamzeh Mansour (Amman second). Most analyses see the modest number of contestants and their moderate nature as a message to the state: the moderates are in control and they don't want to be perceived as a threat. A more reasonable analysis by Jamil Nimri is that this number of candidates has a better chance of winning. Some reports have suggested that the prime minister challenged the moderated during a recent meeting by dismissing their clout in the party. This challenge seems to have had an effect.

The head of the IAF, Zaki Bani Irshaid is not happy about this. He is perceived to be a hawk and has been sidelined in the selection processes. He was even hoping to run himself, but was rebuffed. Bani Irshaid was not in attendance when the IAF slate was announced. There are reports that hawks in the party are planning to work towards the failure of some of the more moderate candidates on the slate.

So, while the moderates have won the latest round, there seems to be more of a struggle on the way.

Professional wrestling, anyone?

Why elections are boring

2007-10-02T17:01:00.000+02:00

It has been said that all politics are local. In Jordan, this adage takes on even greater meanings, as most races for parliament are fought for and determined by local politics rather than by any grand political battles.

It starts with the election law.In the current law, the candidates who win the highest number of votes win the seats for that district. In 2003, this meant that candidates with less than 5% of the votes cast could gain a seat in the parliament. For example, Khalil Habarneh won a seat representing the first district by clinching 3419 out of 69324 votes cast (4.9%). Similarly, Marwan Sultan gained a seat in the coveted third district by collecting 3717 out of 66094 total votes cast (5.6%). In most districts, the total votes collected by all the winners did not come near the 50% mark. It is no wonder that almost everybody thinks that they can collect a couple of thousand votes and win a seat. It is true.

Then there are the voters. The electorate has come to view MP’s as their wasta to getting a job, university seat, their road fixed or for asking for the hand of a bride. Thus, from a functional point of view, it makes sense to vote for one of your relatives or friends. Not only do you get a wasta, but you also get bragging rights over your friends from other tribes. More entrepreneurial voters are simply selling their votes (capitalism coming full circle). Tribes are now conducting internal votes (primaries?) to see who will be their candidate. Most have a pretty good idea how many votes they will get because it is the same as the number of their tribe in the district. Governments cynically grant favors to deputies and their favorite constituents so that they can pressure them whenever they want a controversial law passed.

What about political inclinations? Well, these play little into the results. Unless you want to vote for an Islamist, then for the most part you have to choose between centrists who are more interested in the perks of the job than in making any resounding political statement.

And then there are the candidates. Few of them are overly politically interesting. They are either bored self important businessmen, ex-government officials looking for a way back into the limelight or retired ex-officers who have suddenly found lots of extra time on their hands. Political parties run few candidates, and even their candidates play by the rules of tribalism and patronage.

I am hoping something different might happen this time. So far, it looks like the same old same old.

Leftists and the upcoming elections

2007-09-29T15:48:00.000+02:00

Parliamentary elections are scheduled for next November. So, to get people into the spirit, I hope to outline some of the important things to look for as the picture evolves. I will outline the major trends and choose a few races that I think are interesting.

Needless to say, most people don’t expect these elections to change anything. However, it is important to point out that people, not elections, are responsible for change. Therefore, it is easier to complain than to actually do something.

One of the most poorly explored aspects of Jordanian politics is the best mechanism to break the duopoly between the conservative tribal network and the conservative religious movement as expressed by the Muslim Brotherhood and their IAF. The seeming rivalry between these two poles leaves little room for the development of more progressive political expressions in the country.

This has not been helped by the leaders of Leftist and pan-Arabist parties, who for too long have had little to do with local political problems in Jordan, resulting in a bizarre fetishization of all things dark and dictatorial in our Arab surroundings.

Nahid Hattar discusses the place of Islamists in relation to the other opposition forces in his article today, with sharp criticism of the rise of economic liberalism as the dominant economic paradigm that has gone unchallenged by the Islamists. He sees this as being mostly due to Islamists’ belief in this paradigm and because they benefit greatly from it. He screws up in the end where he practically begs the Islamists to change their beliefs and team up with leftist movements for the upcoming parliamentary elections. It seems that there is a push towards announcing a joint slate of candidates between the IAF and the leftists. So, while social consciousness and political inclusion need to find credible voices in the country’s political mix, would be leftists are more interested in creating alliances that would bring them short term benefits than actually making a noticeable change in the political discourse here. Despite this, his call for the return of effectively right wing socialist policies of the 1970’s and 1980’s is both unique and thought provoking.

Two years ago, the National Agenda Committee was supposed to outline the best course for political, social and economic reform in the country. At the time, I was skeptical about how reform can be imposed outside the parameters of the agreed upon constitutional system. Sure enough, attempts to do this failed, and we are where we are. The “reformers” have been sidelined, and we are now dealing with politicians with vested interest in keeping the status quo. This is perpetuated by using the politics of fear and exclusion. Leftists are the obvious escape from this situation, if they can live up to their role.

So, is there a possibility that this can change? I believe that progressive politicians need to find a coherent and unified voice. They need to discuss people’s problems, explore realistic solutions and generally embrace a tough confrontation with both branches of the political right. If they look for a few crumbs from the Islamists’ table, as Hattar wants, then they will continue their marginalization for another four years. The leftists and pan-Arabists did reasonably well in the municipal elections. It is their opportunity and duty to build on that.

You’ve come a long way (back), baby

2007-09-23T17:18:00.000+02:00

For a government that started its tenure promising to establish “freedom square”, it is pathetic to see how far back it slid towards authoritarianism.

This process probably started when they hid behind the parliament to enact a new press law that allowed the jailing of journalists (later “fixed” by the senate).

This was followed by the use of endless legal red tape to stifle the awaited launching of a new independent TV station known as ATV. After months of delays and excuses, the owners have finally given up and sold to new investors. Let’s hope they will be successful, both in launching and in living up to viewers’ expectations.

Along with the ATV debacle, there was the jailing of Ahmad Oweidi Abbadi for publishing some uncomfortable views on his website.

Now, the lust to control information and ideas seems to be spreading to electronic media in general. Today, the assistant director of the press and publications department has said that electronic newspapers will henceforth be under the supervision of the antiquated department. This supervision will also include websites as well (presumably including blogs).

Did I mention what a wise and compassionate government we have?

Political savvy, IAF style

2007-09-15T10:04:00.000+03:00

Yesterday hundreds of people from the town of Mleih, south of Madaba, staged a protest against rising prices, corruption and falling standards of living. It is interesting to note that reports on this do not indicate the involvement of any political party in the organization or staging of this protest. Of course, this is typical.

So, what is the head of Jordan’s largest political party involved with these days? Well, he is busy halfheartedly denying saying that “those who live in […] marginalized regions are, with all due respect, people that are less knowledgeable and less educated, culturally and politically, thus they should not be the majority in the parliament”. This statement has infuriated many Jordanians, largely because this is not true. Apparently, Bani Irshaid believes that only less knowledgeable people would refrain from voting for his backward looking party. His denial is mostly an attack on Al Rai, which reported the original interview published by Jordan Business in English. Why not attack Jordan Business? Because Al Rai is an easier target and because they probably realize that Jordan Business has a recording of the interview. In a pathetic play of words, he denies insulting Bedouins, which is true. He insulted people who live in marginalized areas.

But my question is simple. Who has more political acumen? People peacefully demonstrating for better living conditions in rural areas or politicians who turn their back on the needs of such people and accuse them of backwardness?

Ramadan and prices

2007-09-12T22:28:00.000+03:00

Well, it is that time of year again. Ramadan is tomorrow, and we will have a binge of consumerism, laziness, self righteousness and bad temperedness cloaked in a disguise of piety. This is not the way it’s supposed to be, but there you have it. As happened last year, food prices have risen in response to increased demand. More this year as the dairy producers have raised the prices by about 40% in response to the raising of cattle feed prices by the government. This poorly timed wave of price rises has caused alarm, with even the king demanding intervention by the government to hold back prices.

In the old days, there used to be a ministry of supplies. This ministry used to publish daily the maximum price of various vegetables and fruits, and had the mandate to punish merchants who overcharged. The prices of dairy products, rice, sugar and other basic foodstuffs were also set by the ministry. This quaint system was abolished in the mid 90’s, as the country moved to a market economy where forces of supply, demand and competition would determine prices. Many people are nostalgic for the old days, although there is now no legal mechanism to enforce prices. So, what is the government going to do to alleviate this inflation?

What else would a government do? They formed a committee, of course. Then the PM asked the chambers of commerce and industry, nicely, to please lower the prices. Dairy producers agreed to lower their newly inflated prices by 10%. On the other hand, the cement company responded by raising their prices.

The government owns its own supermarkets that nominally only sell to civil servants and to military personnel. These supermarkets enjoy tax breaks and are cheaper than privately owned ones. This has often been a source of tension, as private merchants complain about unfair competition; especially that monitoring whether shoppers are entitled to enter is typically (and predictably) lax to non-existent. Well, now this pretence is gone and the government has officially allowed anybody who wants to enter to do so.

The government is also sponsoring open air markets to allow direct selling of produce from the producer to the consumer. It is not obvious how well this will work.

It seems to me that all of this is baloney. This interference in the market is a temporary fix that can not be sustained. If the government wants to help people deal with rising prices, they can tie wages with inflation. The taxes they collect go up with the rate of inflation, so it is not unreasonable to ask that wages go up at a reasonable pace to match inflation. On the other hand, peoples shopping habits, especially in Ramadan, need to be reconsidered.

May you have a happy and blessed Ramadan. And take it easy on the gatayif.

Trying to get the numbers straight

2007-09-11T17:03:00.000+03:00

Today I read in Al Ghad a report on our oil imports for the first seven months of 2007. It is based on a department of statistics press release. It seems that we imported 633 million dinars worth of crude oil during this period. Now we are constantly told that we import about 100,000 barrels of oil per day. So, in 7 months we should have imported 21 million barrels. It is a simple calculation to figure out that each barrel cost a little more than 30 dinars (43 dollars).

Now, we have recently been through a carefully staged play in which we were told that the sky will fall in because world oil prices are over 70 dollars per barrel, and that our budget was based on an assumption that world prices would be 60 dollars this year. We were also told that we need to set aside 200 million dinars per year to cover this shortfall.

So, we are buying crude from Saudi Arabia for 43 dollars per barrel, and we made a deal with the Iraqis to buy oil at an 18 dollars discount (at the assumption that it is 70 dollars for prime crude, working out to 52 dollars per barrel). The prices are based on the assumption that the cost is 60 dollars, but since the WORLD PRICE is 70 dollars, we are losing 200 million dinars a year, despite the fact that we are not paying the world price. I hope that all of that is clear.

I have to go now. I have a headache.

An interesting survey

2007-09-10T22:23:00.000+03:00

The department of statistics has released a new comparative study on income and spending by Jordanian families and individuals. The study compares income and spending patterns between 2002 and 2006. The study is based on a survey of 12792 families from all over the country. It shows that average income levels for families rose during this period from 5590 to 6220 dinars per year. At the same time, average spending rose from 6206 to 7550 dinars per year.

In 2006, 36.5% of the average expenditure was on food and tobacco products. Much of this was on meat and poultry (7.85%).

Non-food expenditures were dominated by housing (about 1200 dinars per year) and transportation and communication (also about 1200 dinars per year). It is unfortunate that communications and transportation were not separated out. It is estimated that cell phone revenues for 2007 will be 517 million USD (361.9 million dinars). Assuming about 1 million families in the country, cellular phones account for an average of about 360 dinars per year per family. 37.1% of households own cars.

The study shows that the wealthiest 10% of the population accounted for 26.7% of spending, whereas the poorest 10% only accounted for 3.3% of the spending. 36.2% of families have incomes of less than 5000 dinars per year whereas only 7.3% of families make more than 15000 dinars per year. The Gini coefficient (a measurement of income disparity) was calculated to be 0.399, up from 0.391 in 2002, suggesting more disparity with time.

The average spending on cigarettes is 270 dinars per family.

How is the deficit spending supported? The survey suggests that selling property covers 15.6% of the shortfall. The report also suggests that there may be a tendency to over report spending and under report income on the part of the respondents.

So there it is; a profile that shows the poverty, the affluence, and the priorities. In short, it shows what’s up in Jordan.

The case of the runaway budget

2007-09-04T17:35:00.000+03:00

The government is preparing an annex to the 2007 budget, making allocations for an additional 500 million dinars in expenditures. This has been marketed to cover the costs of retaining fuel prices and livestock feed at current levels. However, the numbers don’t add up.

The government claims that keeping fuel prices as they are will cost 237 million dinars after not having any budget for this item originally. Some analysts think this number is inflated. Moreover, the lower cost of Iraqi oil is not considered. Anyway, despite these reservations I will take the number at face value.

I mentioned the story of the cattle feed earlier. It seems that a few months ago, the government held a census of livestock in the country. The counters colluded with the farmers to inflate the number of heads, ostensibly in order to increase the amount of any government payouts that may be given to herders. The inflated count led to the conclusion that subsidies for feed will cost 160 million instead of the budgeted 60 million. Of course, the ghost heads will not eat, and so the conclusion that this 100 million dinar differential is untrue. At one point, the lifting of the subsidies was expected to save 33 million dinars. Anyway, I will take the 100 million dinars at face value as well.

So, the increased expenditures according to the most pessimistic outlooks total 337 million dinars. So, what about the extra 163 million? The government simply says that this is for “other expenditures for which their allocations were not enough” in the original budget. How convincing.

It should be noted that this year’s budget of 4.3 billion dinars is the largest in history. It originally showed a 9.3% growth over the 2006 budget, with inexplicable rises in recurring expenditures. A 100 million dinar annex has already been passed to fund a modest pay raise for government workers. It is clear that government spending is out of control, as our public debt rose by over 200 million dinars in the first six months of this year. It’s no wonder that the former minister of finance got out of Dodge, although this does not relieve him of the responsibility for his role in this mess.

An attack on mansaf

2007-08-30T19:15:00.000+03:00

The government is planning on severely cutting back it’s subsidies on livestock feed. Rises in the costs and the fixing of the price of this feed is expected to cost the treasury 160 million dinars per year. In order to cut this cost, the government wants to give cash payments to owners of small numbers of sheep and goats, and cut the subsidy of the feed. This would eliminate government support of cattle and poultry, as well as support of large stocks of sheep. Moreover, the proposed cash payments for the small owners would not cover the difference in feed costs which will result from the lifting of subsidies.

Naturally, livestock owners are furious, and today they demonstrated in southern Amman, cutting off the main highway between the capital and Aqaba. Police have now reopened the highway.

Jordan is largely a pastoral country, both in nature and in society. Thus, raising livestock in rural areas is a major source of income. The carrying capacity of the land has long ago been exceeded by the numbers of livestock that are being raised, requiring additional feed to sustain this industry. Lifting of subsidies will raise the cost of doing business, driving many herders to abandon this profession. Costs to the consumers are expected to rise dramatically. Thus, aside from the economic argument, it is imperative to look at the social costs of this decision. We are looking at more unemployment, more migration to the cities, more smuggling and other crime and more anger. There are definitely important security implications for this decision. Of course, this is not the first time that this government has taken such a callous approach to the ambitions and needs to rural areas, but the effect of this decision is more widespread because it affects a larger number of people.

Jordan imports massive amounts of meat at cost that far lower than that of the local meat, which is largely viewed as being superior in quality. Local lamb costs over 6 dinars per kilogram, which is over double the cost of imported meat. No decent mansaf can be made other than with local lamb baladi meat. The same goes for jameed (dried yogurt) made from sheep and goat milk. Thus, the issue has sentimental value as well.

In principal, I am one to believe that economic activities should comply with real market conditions. However, in this case I have reservations about this development. It should be pointed out that agricultural activities in the US and in the west in general enjoy substantial government subsidies, because food security and stabilization of rural communities are desirable goals. The same should apply here, despite the fact that we are quite far away from being self sufficient in food production. Another point is that the costs of meat and poultry and especially of dairy products will rise, which may have implications on public health as people cut back on dairy products. The most important point is that successive governments have mostly failed in providing economic opportunity to rural areas in the country. When enough reasonable opportunities are created, then an attack on the traditional income sources might be considered.

The centrist "current"

2007-08-28T19:04:00.000+03:00

Abdulhadi Majali and a group of like-minded politicians have been going around the country to initiate what they call a nationalist “current” that would replace the large number of centrist parties that have proven to be largely impotent. Majali started this initiative shortly before the dissolution of parliament, apparently in the hope that he can forestall elections until his new party was ready. In his meetings he says that it is unfortunate that he was not given enough time to prepare this “current” before the next elections, which are due in November. Four years was more than enough time.

This is not the first time this has been attempted. Before the 1997 elections, the major centrist parties back then joined together in what was known as the national constitutional party. Shortly after the election, the party broke up as the major figures fought over leadership. Most people believe that this experiment was aborted following state intervention. NOW, it is suggested, the state DOES want the establishment of such a party. Is this true? More importantly, will it work?

I have suggested a few times that Jordan needs a large centrist party that can speak for the majority of Jordanians. Nahid Hattar divided political trends in Jordan into four groups. According to the Hattar classification, such a grouping would fall under the “conservative” heading. Will people find such an umbrella appealing? To a large extent this will depend on whether they find the politicians fronting it appealing. This is a major problem.

While Majali and the others insist that they do not aspire for leadership roles in the new organization, few people are willing to take their assurances at face value. I have heard of one participant of these gatherings asking why it is our fate to have to deal with the same politicians in dictatorship and in democracy. This, I think, sums up the problem. Majali is not a particularly popular politician, and he won his seat in 2003 with a little more than 5000 votes amid allegations that his supporters were ironing out indentations pressed into their plastic ID cards so that they can vote more than once. His democratic credentials are lackluster at best.

So, we have an unpopular politician who started an initiative so that he can forestall having to face voters again. The “current” will be irrelevant in the next elections because there is no time to prepare. More importantly, the present voting system (which Majali, as speaker of the house, made sure was not changed) ensures the election of the same types of people who would be attracted to work within the new current. Why would politicians associate themselves with Majali and his cohorts if they can be elected based on their personal and tribal affiliations? Even more relevant, why would people vote for a state inspired party? I mean, does the state not have enough power already? Should we give them more?

Thus, it seems to me that Majali’s new current will not get very far. This is too bad, because we do need such a party with strong programs and convincing politicians. Some columnists think that the idea deserves a chance. It will have its chance, but from what I can see people are skeptical because of the history of such attempts and because of the personalities fronting the effort. I think that this is too bad.

Oil politics and economics

2007-08-26T19:31:00.000+03:00

Prime Minister Bakhit last week announced a freeze in rises in the prices of oil derivatives, after creating the groundwork for it. In the aftermath of this, finance minister Ziad Fariz resigned. Is it a case of good politics and bad policy? Or were the reasons offered by the government and its media tools not as sound as they originally seemed?

It is difficult to answer these questions because full data is not available. What is well known is that poor and middle class Jordanians are having trouble coping with already high fuel prices because their income levels are not going up at the same rate as the rises in prices (despite government assurances that inflation levels are much lower then peoples perception of them. Go figure). The official line is that the current price levels are set based on the assumption the world oil prices are 60 USD per barrel, rather than the current level of over 70 USD. The 10 dollar differential costs about 1 million dollars a day. So, how do preferential oil deals, like the recent one with Iraq figure into the equation?

The Iraq deal is for a discount of 18 dollars per barrel for 30,000 barrels per day (daily imports are 100,000 barrels). An anonymous government official tried to minimize the importance of the deal, citing a 13 dollar per barrel cost to transport the oil. Presumably it costs nothing to transport oil from other sources. It just drives itself over, unlike the lazy Iraqi oil.

The Iraqis seem to be confident that the security issues related to transporting the oil have been solved, and so as long as the security situation is good then there should be no problems in implementing the deal.

So, the Iraqi oil deal should be enough to cover most of the losses incurred due to the rise in world oil prices, especially after factoring in prices that were as low as $52 last spring. The were making money back then.

The government typically accounts for such deals as follows. The $18 price differential will be considered a grant, and the treasury will be charged for the oil at regular market rates. This accounting scheme account for how the government was losing money even when Saddam was giving them oil for free. Of course, this gives a misleading impression. Although economically speaking trying to build an economy on real prices prevents distortions and discourages waste.

Samih Maaitah says that the best was to deal with future surprises, after the liberation of the energy sector next year will be to pay people salaries sufficient to cover basic costs of living. How radical. I doubt it will happen. How else can we always be beholden to the government?

Should Raghad be extradited?

2007-08-18T20:04:00.000+03:00

The Iraqi government has issued an arrest warrant for Raghad, Saddam Hussein’s daughter. She is being accused of working to support the insurgency in Iraq. Currently, she and her family are living in Amman.

The Jordanian press says that the warrant does not require them to turn her in. This is despite an agreement between the government and Iraqi security officials to exchange wanted individuals. Naturally, most people instinctively would reject repatriating the woman.

I have written before defending Jordan maintaining good relationships with the various Iraqi parties. However, this request seems to cross the line. As the Iraqi government looks for scapegoats to blame for the miserable security situation that they have, they have already lost legitimacy themselves with large segments of their population. Jordan should not attempt to take the Iraqi government’s side for both pragmatic and moral reasons.

From the pragmatic perspective, it will be supporting a clearly losing side. Moreover, a good relationship with the Sunnis is an asset both to Jordan and to any long term reconciliation process in Iraq. There is no obvious reason to alienate the Sunnis, and there is little to convince anybody that Raghad is actually a factor in the Iraqi liberation movement.

From a moral perspective, it is more likely than not that she will be executed after a kangaroo trial, just like her father. There are no guarantees of a fair trial, and it would be morally reprehensible to have anything to do with such an outcome.

Jordan still seems to be vacillating about executing Sajida Rishawi. It is possible that her sentence will be commuted for humanitarian reasons. How could we justify commuting the sentence of a known terrorist, and send a politically expedient scapegoat to her death at the hands of lawless militias?

Shawerma banned

2007-08-13T01:18:00.000+03:00

After the third mass shawerma poisoning within the last year, the government has decided to banish the greasy treat from the country’s restaurants. This ban will last until they figure out how to keep it safe.

I suppose this is prudent, although it punishes clean establishments for the sins of the unhygienic. Maybe they should prevent people from drinking water as well.

Talal Abu Ghazaleh and the Amman municipality

2007-08-12T20:20:00.000+03:00

In 2003, a large area in central Amman, previously designated as land for the headquarters of the army and other security services, was earmarked for an ambitious urban renovation project lead by the Hariri group. Thus, the Abdali project was born.

The 350 dunum parcel of land belongs to a government owned company called Mawared. While the government, through Mawared, is a partner in the project, this initiative is a purely capitalist endeavor.

So, when the investors became more ambitious, they attempted to purchase adjacent properties. While some sold at handsome prices, others refused. The Talal Abu Ghazaleh Group refused.

According to the website set up by Abu Ghazaleh, the Amman Municipality first prevented their company to build on the land they own in the area. Later, the mayor tried to mediate a sale between the Abdali project and Abu Ghazaleh, threatening to confiscate the land and buildings if Abu Ghazaleh refused to sell. This is what later transpired, with the municipality publishing a notice of confiscation for the land.

According to Jordanian law, the government can only confiscate land if it is for projects of public benefit. To get around this, the municipality published a map showing that the land to be confiscated will be used to open a street and for parks. Fahed Fanek wrote a commentary practically dismissing the municipality’s claim that the confiscation is for public benefit. The municipality in term responded by insisting that the confiscation was necessary for expanding the road system in the area.

Yesterday, Abu Ghazaleh threw a bombshell. They revealed that the municipality had confiscated two pieces of land in the area last May, only to resell them to the Abdali project in July. It is obvious that the municipality is abusing its power for the benefit of the Abdali Project. Abu Ghazaleh is appealing to the supreme court. I think they have already won in the court of public opinion.

Another fuel rise

2007-08-12T18:13:00.000+03:00

The screen play for raising fuel prices has become monotonous. The boring show starts with an “independent” columnist at Al Rai starts to wring his hands about the budget deficit. Next, press leaks to the effect that there is a budget deficit, and that government subsidies are going to help the rich. Here it is forgotten that the government blames high inflation (which actually hurts the poor) on fuel price increases. This is a simple example of trying to have things both ways: subsidies don’t help the poor, and inflation is due to the elimination of the subsidies. Next there is an exaggerated rumor as the extent of the price rise. This is to make people grateful that the rise was not as bad as it might have been. Next, a promise to float the prices so that they reflect world oil prices, implying that someday prices might actually go down. Ha Ha.

At least this time we might be spared the coupon shtick. You never know.

Iraqi travelers at QAIA

2007-08-11T22:31:00.000+03:00

I have been reading with some embarrassment the criticisms of how Iraqi travelers are treated in Queen Alia International Airport. While all of the concerns of my fellow Jordanians are valid, I have a problem with the way this is dealt with. It is backward and demeaning for all parties. Moreover, it may be unnecessary.

People have figured out a long time ago how to deal with unwanted influxes of people. It is quite simple, actually. If people want to come to your country, you have to issue them a visa first. Even when there are no embassies, councils can do this job. Have a consulate in Baghdad to screen people who want to come or travel through Jordan. Approved people can be given a visa, and at the airport you can deal with them in a civilized manner. It is easy to understand why the situation can deteriorate quickly at the airport, because all the standard screening processes have to take place on the spot. Sometimes it takes a while to decide if you want to let certain people in. This is why the visa system was invented.

If it is impossible to establish an embassy or consulate in Iraq, then this situation can not be avoided. Given the problems in Iraq, no responsible government in the world will allow people in without thorough security screening. It is sad, but not as sad as the reality in Iraq.

Is it politics or professional wrestling?

2007-08-07T16:02:00.000+03:00

The struggle between the Islamist movement and the government is passing what seems to be a point of no return. Following loud accusations that the government was involved in forging the municipal elections, the prime minister launched an all out attack on the Muslim Brotherhood. Abu Aardvark has an excellent review of the details.

Lost in the scuffle is whether cheating actually occurred. Most people and a lot of anecdotal evidence suggest that there was cheating, although the scale of this is not yet known. I tend not to be persuaded with what most people think, as many Jordanians are more than willing to believe even the most absurd rumors. The government response has evaded the main charge and focused on MB intentions. Jamil Nimri’s editorial suggests tacitly that the state has decided that “an ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure” and that they will use “available tools without timidity or fear of accusations of bias”. This does not leave much to the imagination. They will do whatever it takes to prevent the Islamists from taking power. This was not an outcome that would have transpired anyway, because the number of Islamist candidates was too small, their popularity was too low and the elections were for municipal councils that have little bearing on state policy.

Yasser Abu Hilaleh suggests that this will increase the popularity of the MB. I am not sure that if this was not the desired outcome. The popularity of the Islamists was in a slump, with many people angry and distrusting of them. What better way to give them a boost than to arrange an elaborate theater? I can think of no other reason to intervene blatantly in elections in favor of the side that was going to win anyway. The only other explanation I can think of is plain stupidity.

Jordanian politics is a lot like watching the Harlem Globetrotters playing the Washington Generals. Of course, the Globetrotters always win, because the Generals are there for the specific purpose of losing. In the final analysis it is a theater which needs to maintain some semblance of competition. The removal of the Generals would mean that smart, credible political parties with Jordan’s interest at heart may start to rise from the shadows. Notwithstanding all the theater, the powers that be in Jordan are not interested in such an outcome.

Irbid election results and the cheating charge

2007-08-02T08:23:00.000+03:00

Five candidates ran for mayor in Irbid. The winner, Abderaouf Tell, received 41995 votes. In second place came Abdelnasser Bani Hani (22262 votes) and in third place came the IAF candidate, Nabil Kofahi (16479 votes).

The margin of victory for Tell over Kofahi, who withdrew his candidacy at around 1 in the afternoon, was over 25500 votes.

The IAF claims that the military bussed in voters to vote for Tell. Assuming that in the remaining four hours of voting (after voting had been going on for six hours) Kofahi got double his number (doubtful), then his total would have reached about 33000 votes.

Thus, the vote differential between Tell and Kofahi would have been on the order of 9000 votes.

Assuming the busses carried 50 soldier voters each, the total number of busses needed to overcome Kofahi by this margin (assuming that they were tied) was 180 buses. There are 23 voting places in Irbid, which means that 8 full buses per station were needed to achieve this, but much more if the government wanted to play it safe.

Now, the government does not deny busing in soldiers to vote. It denies that they were ordered to vote for any specific candidate. My guess is that each station saw 2 or 3 buses. Even five loaded buses would not have made a difference.

Of course, this rough analysis does not mean that cheating did not occur, but it implies that the scale would have been massive for it to have made a difference.

The IAF has made contradictory statements as to whether the soldiers voted verbally (illiterate voting) or whether they had pre-filled ballot cards. Ballot cards have to be signed by the head to the box committee. So, in case this is investigated, it will be easy to determine whether boxes were stuffed with pre-filled ballots by simply looking at the signatures on the ballot cards. Illiterate voting means that the ballot card was filled by one person at the box charged with writing in the voters’ wishes. The number of ballots with these persons’ handwriting can also be determined by an impartial analysis.

This issue should be resolved through an impartial investigation, either by the courts following an official IAF complaint or by an independent committee appointed by the government. Since the government is the accused, the best way to settle this is by judicial inquiry.

A good night for the National Democratic Front

2007-07-31T23:53:00.000+03:00

The National Democratic Front is a coalition of four leftist and Arabist parties. They fielded a few candidates for mayoral and city council seats. Thus far, they have won the mayoral seats in Karak (a major coup) and Ain al Basha. They have also won seats on city councils in Amman, Karak, Zerqa and Kufranja. A number of the mayoral and city council seats have yet to be decided. Even if things stop here, they have done well.

********
UPDATE: Their mayoral candidate in Burma (Jarash) also won.

Lady victory

2007-07-31T21:40:00.000+03:00

Rana Hajaya has been elected as mayor of the dusty little town of Al Hassa. Al Hasa’s claim to fame is that it is the location of a major phosphate mine. The town’s residents are tribal and working class people.

Al Hajaya previously served as mayor of this town, which doesn’t seem to need a quota system to chose a lady who they believe is best fit for the job.

Good for them

IAF withdraws from the municipal elections

2007-07-31T15:57:00.000+03:00

As it has suggested, the IAF has announced that it is withdrawing from the elections. I have never heard of anybody withdrawing from elections during the voting process. Maybe they were hoping things would go their way, despite all the previous indications to the contrary. The government says that the withdrawal is illegal, and would continue the voting and counting process as scheduled.

The IAF statement cited voting by military personnel as the reason for withdrawing. The statement says that the personnel voted by saying the candidate’s name openly. This mechanism is available for people who are illiterate, but is sometimes abused by people who sell their votes. Later, the IAF head, Zaki Bani Irshaid changed this claim, saying that the military personnel showed up with pre-filled ballot cards. They had months to get their story straight, and they still blew it.

Other claims by Bani Irshaid include allowing multiple votes for specific candidates, shooting and fights at some voting places, and throwing out of IAF representatives out of “some” voting stations.

Candidates are allowed representatives at each box, where they can keep track of who has voted, and object to multiple voting. In most districts, there are more than two candidates. So such abuses would be expected to have been objected to not only by IAF candidates, but by the candidates who are not getting this supposed government patronage. Voters for Irbid Mayoral candidate Abdelnasser Bani Hani (not IAF) are openly concerned that the government is throwing its weight behind Abdelraouf Tell. It will be interesting if Bani Hani and Nabil Kofahi (the IAF candidate) converge on a similar story.

More later.

Municipal elections today

2007-07-31T11:12:00.000+03:00

Country wide elections are being held today in accordance with the recently passed municipalities’ law. The government insists that it will be impartial, while many observers are worried about government interference. Specifically, two issues are cited. The first is that registration committees allowed for large scale vote transfers for specific candidates. Aggrieved candidates had a chance to object to any voter transfer, but few did because they were all involved in transferring voter registrations, and nobody wanted to rock the boat.

The second issue is the decision to allow military personnel to vote. There is concern that the soldiers will be ordered to vote for specific candidates. It is not obvious how this order can be enforced. Anyway, the IAF is complaining about it, as per the usual whining. They are threatening to withdraw from the elections today. Presumably they will withdraw if they lose. What courage!

Some people are complaining about the lack of substance in the campaigning, and the dominance of personal and tribal considerations rather than any programs. It is a subtle reference to the weakness of participation of political parties. The political parties blame the one vote election law. In reality, few political parties are interested in the details of local government or the day to day problems of people. They are more interested in liberating Palestine and Iraq, and not picking up garbage, building parks or paving streets.

There is a lot of interest by women in this election. The 20% quota has energized women’s organizations, and I think that a fair number will win outside the quota system.

More later.

Eavesdropping

2007-07-30T17:13:00.000+03:00

Al Arab Al Yawm reports that the prime minister has accused unidentified members of his cabinet of leaking news to this newspaper. According to the report, these accusations were made based on (presumably recorded) conversations made between cabinet members and journalists. He also accused ministers of initiating rumors about the government and their colleagues.

It is funny that Al Arab Al Yawm found this out. It seems that the PM wasn’t able to intimidate the source of the leak. What is more worrying is the admission that spying on cabinet members is taking place. More level headed people would refrain from making such a confession.

Is somebody losing his cool?

Ministers fired

2007-07-30T15:51:00.000+03:00

The ministers of water and heath today were forced to resign in the aftermath of the latest water problems in the Manshieh area of Mafraq. A number of senior bureaucrats were fired as well.

While it is not obvious why the minister of heath was shown the door, I have had my reservations about the minister of water for a while. Unlike the assertion of Fahed Fanek that ministers don’t have to be “brilliant”, it is clear that the ministry of water and irrigation needs to have competence and vision.

I am sure that now, they have now learnt their lesson, and somebody will be chosen who has a proven track record technically and administratively. No more appointments based on geographic origin or sponsorship from big politicians. No more appointing ministers because their father was a minister. Yes sir. They must have learnt their lesson THIS TIME!

Irbid water crisis

2007-07-28T19:24:00.000+03:00

The water situation in Irbid this year has been bad from the beginning. I suspect that a large part of the problem is that Syria has not allowed any significant volume of water to flow into the Yarmouk River. Of course, as long as Syria broadcasts a complimentary TV program on the occasion of Jordan’s Independence Day, who cares if 400,000 people have to get by with no water?

Added to this, the water fiasco over the last two weeks in Mafraq has meant that absolutely no water has been pumped to large swaths of the city for the past two weeks. Tanker drivers selling water are making a killing, selling the water to the highest bidders. The cost of three cubic meters of water is now selling for over 25 dinars. This volume of water is barely enough for a small family for a week.

This is another crisis brewing. Notice that the government will not take any action until it is too late. This time is fast approaching.

Another mass infection (yawn)

2007-07-21T23:57:00.000+03:00

According to official sources, over 600 people have thus far been infected by a mysterious virus in the Mafraq governorate. This story has been developing for about a week, with initial suspicions that the water supply to the area has been compromised. These suspicions have now been confirmed. The minister of health blames the outbreak on chlorine resistant parasites (I wonder if they are on the government payroll). Everybody will be fine if they would just boil the water before drinking it. Thanks, government! What would people do without you? Earlier reports said that it was a virus.

Initially, there were reports that the minister of water would resign over this issue. These reports seem to have been premature, and it looks like nobody is to blame. This is just like the numerous screw ups in the past. Our illustrious officials are happy enough to enjoy the privileges of their positions, without bearing any responsibility. The water distribution system in the country is losing water as fast as water can be pumped into it, and so breaches in the system can easily cause large scale contamination. Luckily for the minister, this didn’t happen in Amman. People in Mafraq will absorb their losses and move on as if nothing happened.

Until next time.

Just for the record...

2007-07-08T08:05:00.000+03:00

Despite my misgivings, I am happy that Petra has been listed with the new seven wonders. I would add that Petra’s inclusion is more of a validation of the New Seven Wonders project than the project is a validation of the greatness of Petra.

I really am not a killjoy!

The new seven wonders

2007-07-07T18:24:00.000+03:00

Finally, today we will find out if Petra has been chosen to be one of the new Seven Wonders of the World. Jordanians have been inundated with bill boards, print adds, songs, internet and radio advertisements appealing to their nationalism to vote for Petra for the last few months. Will is work? More importantly, does it matter?

We will find out if it works soon enough. The question of whether it will matter is another story. It depends on how much the media will react with the list and how long this new list will be considered credible. I am more inclined to believe that this whole story is a flash in a pan, and will not be in the news for more than three days. Tourism promoters might use it for a longer time, so there might be some benefit in that.

The New Seven Wonders program has been disavowed by the UNESCO, who faults its objectives and methodology. The seemingly democratic vote really is not methodologically sound. Of the millions of people who voted, I would hazard a guess to say that fewer than 100 have actually seen all 21 candidate sites. And even if one has been to all of these sites, what criteria can be used to choose the top seven? How can one compare a 20th century building like the Sidney Opera House with a stone aged site like Stonehenge? How can these be compared with giant statues like Christ the Redeemer or the Statue of Liberty. These comparisons are beyond apples and oranges.

Absent any criteria, we are invited to vote based on nationalistic sentiment. I find that appealing to nationalism to compile a list of sites that are of world wide value somewhat ironic. But this is the reality. How can a country like Jordan, which is the home of about 0.1% of the world's population, compete with China or India?

So, you wanted to vote. There were two ways to do it. You could either have filled out an online form and voted for free, or you could have used SMS phone massages and paid 10 piasters per vote. The free option is more democratic, but you could only vote once. Moreover, you needed to choose seven sites. This presented a problem if you are only interested in one site. Playing game theory, you needed to decide how the other sites affected Petra. So, this means choosing candidates that were obviously going to win anyway, or weak candidates that you think that had no chance of competing. Thus, you needed to try and eliminate the mid tier candidates for this one vote.

Using SMS messages eliminated this hassle by being able to vote for one candidate many times. Companies and institutions were donating the cost of hundreds of thousands of votes. The New Seven Wonders organizers didn’t seem to object to this subverting of the supposed democratic process.

So, at the end of the day, I can tell you who will be the biggest winner of this contest.

Mr. Bernard Weber.

Prisoners back home

2007-07-05T17:45:00.000+03:00

After years of deliberations, negotiations and pressure, Israel has released into Jordanian custody four prisoners who had been in their jails since before the signing of the peace treaty in 1994. They will continue to serve time in Jordanian jails.

Last summer, I mentioned this issue during the Lebanon war. Israel’s willingness to exchange prisoners with Hezbollah, but not to release Jordanian prisoners to the Jordanian government had the effect of creating a credibility gap, and sent a bad message. It is good that this deal was not conducted in relationship with any prisoner deal with Hamas or Hezbollah.

The deal will allow for the Jordanian government to release the prisoners after 18 months. Of course, this will look bad for the Jordanian government, who will be accused imprisoning its own citizens on behalf of Israel. What is worse is that they have been imprisoned for attacking Israeli soldiers before the peace treaty was signed. These men are viewed as heroes to many people. Accusations of the government being an Israeli tool are already being made. It is too bad that making political points are more important to our opposition than alleviation of the suffering of the prisoners and their families.

While this deal will have dubious political benefits for the Jordanian government, it is great humanitarian step for the prisoners and their families. During their many years in prison, only two visits were allowed for their families. They will now be able to visit them on a regular basis. The 18 months in jail will be a picnic compared to the 99 years they were supposed to serve out in Israeli jails. The foreign minister said that they will be treated as “special cases”, presumably receiving preferential treatment. Jamil Nimri mentions that they may be released earlier if a deal allowing the release of Palestinian prisoners with similar sentences is made.

It is interesting that the foreign ministry says that there are 11 prisoners left in Israeli jails. Earlier numbers has suggested that there were around 30. Hopefully, accommodations will be made to release the rest and to put this source of tension behind us.

I would like to agree with Ibrahim Gharaibeh and say “good job”.

Is London the new Kabul?

2007-07-04T17:54:00.000+03:00

Years back, security experts and ordinary people were worried about the return of young mujahideen from Afghanistan and Pakistan. Under US watch and patronage, Osama Bin Laden and many other young Arab and Muslim youth were indoctrinated and trained to fight the Soviet army in Afghanistan, using heavy doses of religious dogma to increase their zeal.

After paying dearly for this short sighted policy on September 11, 2001, the US was supposed to have learnt its lesson. However, their close allies, the British, continued to try to exploit and appease Islamic extremists, even after a group of them bombed the London subway system on July 7, 2005, killing 52 people. London continues to be the home for the most extreme religious fanatics, operating in total freedom.

So, when a brilliant young doctor and his wife left Jordan two years ago, it might not have been too far fetched that he may become a target for the preachers of hate and violence who call London home (as suggested by Firas). The man and wife had clean security records, and were focused on academic and professional achievement rather than mischief. It has not been established yet in court whether they were really involved in the terror plots or to what extent. However, they do seem to have been mixing with a bad crowd.

Personally, I take little stock in the propaganda that tries to blame such conversions to fanaticism on the freedom which is enjoyed in the west. The descendants of the British Empire on which the sun never set can not be so impotent when dealing with a few loud mouthed welfare abusing fanatics. The country that did not hesitate to destroy Iraq and throw it’s population into massive turmoil in which hundreds of thousands have been killed and millions have been displaced can not be so sensitive to the supposed civil rights of a few trouble makers who can be dealt with in a legal and civilized manner. The government that railroaded Abdelbaset Megrahi for the sole purpose of extorting the Libyan government is not so sensitive to due process or justice. The “freedom” argument for such blatant harboring of inciters of terror rings quite hollow.

It is not difficult to conclude that British authorities harbor and tolerate these people because they serve a purpose. I might add that this purpose is not benign. The end result is that terror emanating from the preachers of hate serves to marginalize the Muslim community in Britain, and fosters xenophobia with the British public. Abroad, this tolerance legitimizes extremism, and is a source of pressure on Arab and Muslim countries to act in a similar way with their own extremists. Only a lunatic or a traitor would try to emulate this behavior.

So, while we are worried about fanatics returning from Iraq, Pakistan or Afghanistan, it might be worth while to remember that Britain is the only country that offers preachers of death residency, welfare and legal protection.

Cheerio!

Nice try, but it won't work

2007-06-16T21:21:00.000+03:00

It is widely recognized that the base of the Islamist movement in Jordan is strongly rooted with Jordanians with Palestinian origins. Thus, much of the defense of Hamas last year when the arms smuggling case broke came from this perspective. Many people, even who don’t identify with the Islamists, viewed Hamas as a legitimate resistance organization that had not been tainted with Arab or Palestinian blood. Recent events in Gaza changed this myth for most.

So, in an interesting turn of events, the head of Hamas, Khaled Mish’al has met with Nahid Hattar. In their meeting, Mish’al told Hattar what he wanted to hear: Hamas loves Jordan, and is grateful for King Hussein saving his life; Hamas can become a gateway for Jordanian influence in Palestine; the peace process is at dead end and the liquidation of the Palestinian cause is a grave threat to Jordan; and hardships imposed by Israel on the Palestinians will lead to mass displacement from the occupied territories towards Jordan. He also admitted involvement in the smuggling of weapons to Jordan, but said that they were only destined to be transported to the West Bank (yeah, right).

Hattar, like many East Bank Jordanians, worries about changing the character of the state in a way that decreases the influence of traditional power structures that purport to defend East Bank Jordanian interests. So, playing on this, Misha’al told him that he is totally against the calls for increasing Palestinian Jordanian political representation, as Adnan Abu Odeh continues to do.

Now, Mish’al continues to hold a Jordanian passport. Moreover, Hamas and Jordanian Islamists still call the 1988 disengagement unconstitutional, and demand its revocation. So, basically, Mish’al has sold off his Palestinian Jordanian constituency, with all their demands, in favor of trying to appease and woo East Bankers for their support. I suppose this started with Hamas’ demand to break organizational links with the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood. However, the depth of cynicism and political opportunism has never been more on display. Machiavelli would be proud.

Damage control

2007-06-10T20:07:00.000+03:00

The bellicose rhetoric that accompanied with yesterday’s disastrous dealing with the residents of South Shuneh changed to a more conciliatory tone today. In an attempt to explain the government’s position, the prime minister resorted to trying and confuse the issue. He held a meeting with the heads of the major daily newspapers, and later an unnamed source told the press that the campaign included not only South Shuneh, but other areas including Lubban (the tribal area of the minister of interior, Eid Fayez), the Kfarrat area (in the north, on the Yarmouk River), South Shuneh, Azraq and other areas in the eastern desert.

The unnamed source talked about forcing people to pay their water and electricity bills, and about a scam to forge land deeds to sell land illegally. Don’t ask me what the forgery case has to do with anything, because I don’t know. As for collecting water and electricity bills, I think that Jordan is the only country in the world where bulldozers are used to punish people who don’t pay. Gulp. I’d better make sure that I’ve paid mine. The statement talks about outlaws in the area, as if the destruction of farms is related to capturing gangs.

It is true that some large tribal land owners use large amounts of water and electricity, and use thugs to intimidate the bill collectors so they don’t pay. If the government can get them to pay, well, good for them. However, the statement dishonestly implies that this is the issue in South Shuneh.

In South Shuneh the issues are unlawful use of land and the drilling of wells without license. The government statement claims that of 470 wells, 85 have been retroactively licensed. Attention was pointed to one relatively large farm (300 dunums) and ignored the fact that most of the farms destroyed were small lots. The government now says that they want to “alleviate the hardship of 45 families that may have been harmed”. How nice, destroy their livelihoods and then give them handouts. The damage has been done, and no number of press statments will change anything.

In principle, the law should be enforced. Mixing the case of the wealthy landlords with that of the poor farmers who had their lived bulldozed before the government realized the implications (if they care) is disingenuous. A more humane approach should have been used and a legal settlement should have been sought. This should not have happened in Jordan.

Double standards, arrogance, stupidity and meanness

2007-06-09T10:07:00.000+03:00

A battle between residents of South Shuneh in the Jordan Valley and security forces was barely averted yesterday. The government had destroyed farms, homes and infrastructure that were illegally built on government land. The Minister of Interior is insisting that the rule of law needs to be upheld. Presumably, he doesn't mind blood being shed to do it.

After failing in their “anti-corruption” drive, the government started looking for villains in poor people trying to get by, as they seem unwilling or unable to get to the real crooks ripping off the country. Now, I have a number of problems with this. Nowhere have I read that there were any judicial proceedings were conducted before destroying the livelihoods of hundreds or thousands of families. Also, the alleged transgressions on government land took place over many years, and have taken on a de facto status. Insisting on reversing these transgressions should be gradual and with a more compassionate approach. These people are not thieves. They are farmers who are trying to make a living. If the government is so insistent on its property rights, it would have not allowed these transgressions to take place to begin with.

Nahid Hattar points out that had a foreign investor wanted to build a farm in this land, he would have been greeted with open arms. I would add that as part of the peace treaty, the government found a way to keep Israeli farmers (who also took the land illegally) on Jordanian land through a 99 year lease. If Israeli farmers can be accommodated, surely Jordanian farmers should be afforded similar concessions.

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UPDATE: Ammon News is now reporting that one person was killed and four police were wounded in the latest clash.