The pollsters
Two men who made their names conducting opinion polls are running for the upcoming parliamentary elections. Mustafa Hamarneh of the Strategic Studies Center at the University of Jordan is running in the first district of Madaba and Musa Shtaiwi of the Jordan Social Research Center is running in the first district in Balqa (Salt).
Unfortunately, no opinion polls have ever been conducted to attempt to determine winners in parliamentary elections. Hence, most people are usually surprised by the some of the results. However, these candidates should have a better idea about their chances of winning, being pollsters and all.
Or do they?
Labels: Parliamentary elections 2007
posted by Khalaf @ 9:12 AM
5 comments
5 Comments:
Yeah it would be interesting to know how Dr Hamarneh studied the chances of winning... it's sure going to be a tough battle for Madaba's Christian seat!
It would be very refreshing to have someone like him in Parliament.
Unfortunately your proffession or degree, nor your records or honesty or any of the important elements in determining your choice of a candidate has nothing to do with your chances of winning an election, the main factor most of the time is your tribe which has become as a substitute for political parties,with exception to some names like Eshbailat and Malhas and Tojan just to name afew, most candidates including strong political party like IAF still rely on this factor in running for election.
Mr. Hamarneh and Mr. Shtaiwi should know this fact more than any one.
Good luck for both of them.
Or do they what, Khalaf?!
using polls gives all candidates, who refer to these polls, and they are few, a better chance to win, but they can not give any candidate a better idea of her/his chance to win because all candidates have equal access to polls and as you said, Khalaf, there is no single poll to determine winners . Moreover, polls won't help candidates broaden their tribal base, which is the most important voter base in Jordan. However, polls would help candidates to broaden their issue base, which has more to do with platforms and less to do with tribal politics.
Good Luck for all Candidates.
Musa Shteiwi has a very tough competetion in Fuheis 2 other candidates from the same family.
The problem with opinion polls in Jordan is the shadiness
I have taken a quick glance at the candidates names in Madaba's Christian seat and I think Dr Hamarneh may have a good chance. I am not sure whether the Hamarnehs consider him as a "representative" of the tribe or too liberal to be supported. However I think he studied his chances as he quit from his job in the CSS to run for elections.
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