Jordan and the collapse of the “moderation axis”

Ever since the disastrous decision in 1990 to stand against the use of military power to liberate Kuwait, Jordanian policy has been to firmly align its foreign policy with the desires of the US and its Arab proxies in the Gulf and Egypt. Of course, this was nothing new, as traditional Jordanian policy was western leaning, despite the Gulf war detour.

And since the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the subsequent alignment that followed, Jordan, along with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE as well as the parliamentary government of Lebanon and Mahmoud Abbas’ Fateh government in Palestine coalesced into what has become known as the “moderation axis”. In opposition, Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hizbollah, with the sometimes backing of Qatar, formed the “axis of objection”. While not publicly supporting of US politics in Iraq or even the US’ apparent desire to strike Iran militarily, the widespread impression is that the Arab members of the AoM were willing to barter their position on these issues in exchange for US pressure on Israel to resolve the Palestinian issue. The desire for peace with Israel was codified into what is known as the “Beirut declaration”, which was based on a Saudi initiative.

Anyway, the AoM is now on the run. Hamas is in control of Gaza, and the Palestinian issue is on the back burner, with Abbas threatening to resign. The Lebanese government caved into the demands of Hizbollah (with Qatari intervention). And for icing on the cake, Israel is conducting back channel peace negotiations with Syria.

And where does that leave us? On a political level, the possible repercussions of the collapse of whatever is left of the Palestinian authority are as stark as ever. On the economic level, the Saudis and Emaratis are reportedly refusing to help out with our serious economic problems, despite them sitting on piles of money that they don’t know what to do with. Our membership in the AoM is not enough to appease the US, who seems to be insistent that the final solution of the Palestinian issue should be on Jordan’s expense. It is ironic that we have joined the team that , even if it wins, is hostile to Jordan and it's interests. And even as Syria is negotiating with Israel, they refuse to deal with Jordan on any of the hanging bilateral issues (including border, trade and water issues).

And reading recent press commentary, it is clear that even people who had serious problems with our foreign policy are finding it too difficult to gloat. The biggest question is what next? One option is to wait for the election of a new president in the US. Odds are that this is a poor bet, and so we need to play a better game.

What are our cards?

Foremost is security and security cooperation. Everybody in the MoA is quite happy to use Jordanian intelligence and their security capabilities. This includes the US (especially Jordan’s relationship with Iraqi Sunnis), and Saudi Arabia, who’s control of Al Qaeda is partially due to Jordanian help.

Then there is diplomacy. Here the adage “why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free” is particularly apt. We gave away all our diplomatic chips without getting anything tangible in return. Any reexamination of our diplomacy should include a fresh look at diplomatic initiatives towards Iran, Hamas and Syria.

Finally, national unity and stubbornness. This should start with explaining what the challenges are, what the requirements are, and why we refuse to capitulate. Real steps should be made for more self-reliance, especially in energy and food production. To be open with the people, the regime should also make real movement towards political pluralism and personal and public accountability. This will require the cessation of all the controversial land sales until a national consensus is achieved (even partially). This is the only way to get the people behind such a challenge.