Punishing moderation, rewarding extremism

The recent trouble between Israel and the Palestinians and between Israel and Hezbollah is fueled by the desire to release prisoners held by Israel. While Israel has hundreds if not thousands of prisoners held in its jails, it seems quite more indignant than would seem reasonable about less than a handful of its own solders being held by the other side. Asymmetry at its best.

Of course, what encourages both the Palestinians and Lebanese to try and capture Israeli soldiers is the fact that prisoner exchanges have been organized between the various parties in the past. In 2004, hundreds of Palestinian and Lebanese prisoners were exchanged for one Israeli agent captured by Hezbollah and the remains of three Israeli soldiers.

While the violent reaction by Israel to the capture of its solders is predictable (with the logic that this is the only language Arabs understand), so is the gradual realization that eventually, negotiations will be made and deals with be struck (proving to Arabs that militarism is the only language that Israel understands). In reality, there is no other mechanism available for Palestinians and Lebanese to free their prisoners, who can be picked up at will by the Israeli army.

One must only look at the case of Jordanian prisoners in Israel to conclude that peaceful relationship with Israel is of little significance when trying to free these prisoners. About thirty Jordanian citizens are currently being held in Israeli jails (the supporters of the detainees have 36 photos on their web site), and Jordan is still seeking information about soldiers lost since the 1967 war. Relatives of the detainees have been pressuring the government to work to release them. The Jordanian government, in turn, has been pressuring Israeli to release these prisoners since the 2004 exchange with Hezbollah, in which many Jordanians feel that the government asked Israel not to release the prisoners, even after Hezbollah was negotiating to release them. The reasoning was that the Jordanian government didn’t want to give credit to Hezbollah for their release. Instead, Israel negotiated with Jordan for over a year and then released about nine of the prisoners. This was widely (and rightly) viewed as an insult by Israel to the Jordanian government, and many Jordanians reached the obvious conclusion that the militant approach of Hezbollah is more effective than the peaceful negotiation path advocated by the Jordanian government.

The behavior of successive Israeli governments on this issue seems to be specifically designed to encourage militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, and to humiliate moderate forces such as the Jordanian government. What would have happened if Israeli had released prisoners as a gesture of good will to Jordan, the Lebanese government and the previous Fateh government before Hamas won the election? It would have been magnanimous, and would have strengthened moderation. Israeli governments don’t respect moderation. For anybody looking to understand why people sympathize with extremism, this would be a good place to start.