Friday, April 28, 2006

The "sabotaging Hamas" theory

Khader Kenaan has articulated a theory running in Amman. The basic premise is that the Jordanian government made up the story of the terror cell in order to achieve certain objectives. I have responded to this theory on his blog and I am republishing it here:

Khader: You start with two questions. The first is if it makes sense for Hamas to try and commit terror in Jordan, and the second is that if it is in Jordan's benefit to fabricate such a story. You immediately favor the idea of the Jordanian government acting irrationally rather than Hamas doing the same.

Let me play along with the idea that the Jordanian government made up the story, according to you, to achieve the following objectives:

1- Contribute to the failure of the Hamas administration.
2- Tie itself more closely to the American project, and
3- To cut into the Islamist project in Jordan.

First, Hamas will fail no matter what Jordan does. I really can't understand the logic of people crying about people conspiring to make Hamas fail. How would success for Hamas be defined? Will it free Palestine from the river to the sea? Or will it have next month's salaries? Hamas actively worked to make Fateh and Oslo fail, leading to the election of Netenyaho in 1996 and Sharon in 2000. Of course, Oslo was flawed, but it's success would have meant the establishment of a Palestinian state in Gaza and most of the west bank. So, the systematic sabotaging of the PA by Hamas had the tangible effect of denying the creation of a Palestinian state. What would sabotaging Hamas do? There is no way that a Palestinian state will be negotiated with Hamas in power.

Second, bringing up Jordan's relationship with the US in this context seems to be for emotional/propaganda value. I have not seen any US endorsement of Jordan's position, and scanning US media sources shows little interest in the story. The US doesn't need Jordan to convince them that Hamas is a terrorist organization.

Third, I would venture to bet that this entire scenario has strengthened rather than weakened the MB/IAF. Maybe it was the government spokesman's ineptitude. However, going back to the first point, Hamas is on it's way to failure without Jordan's help. The short term boost that the Islamist movement in Jordan had would have lasted as long as Hamas stayed in power (probably less than six months). If this is the reason, it would be silly to be so impatient. We could have watched the car wreck without having to get involved.



At 2:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...


"it would be silly to be so impatient. We could have watched the car wreck without having to get involved."

To quote you (with modification):

"You immediately favor the idea of the [Hamas] acting irrationally rather than [the Jordanian Government] doing the same."

In other words, the Jordanian Government has a history of indecision, wrong calculations (failure to predict bread strikes to name one) and outright heavy-handedness (Ma'an events brutal oppression).

There is good reason to believe the government can do it again - to miscalculate its steps. Remember the latest even about Basem Awadallah and the Minister-from-the-South problems? The government went one step too far in its liberal agenda and it tripped that time.

Hamas, from my vantage point, is much more rational, careful and restrained. It takes small steps for sure, but they are sure ones and I can't remember the last time it made a strategic error. Entering the government might be one - but that is for history to tell.

At 2:12 PM, Blogger Khalaf said...

Jameel: When you say they make "rational, careful and restrained decisions", do you mean in the interest of their own organization, or the interest of Palestine and the Palestinian people?

At 2:16 PM, Blogger Omar said...

Well, the issue has taken too much analysis, I've read the article of Khader and your comment, and I would have to say that your argument isn't convincing at all;

First, about your first; it seems that you quoted it from Yedioth Ahronoth, so depressing to hear a Jordanian saying that: "Hamas will fail no matter what Jordan does", plus, you seem that you havn't heard any of what Hamas leaders including Al Zahar said recently over and over about accepting the two states, it must be followed by a "...temporery solution" for Hamas not to lose its bases over a night, if you look at it from a different angle than the Israeli-American-Jordanian governments you will notice how pragmatic the movement has become, and if the intentions of Israel was to go forward with the two states solution Hamas is no obstacle. Another thing, Israel announced immediatly after the second Intifada in 2000 that Oslo agreement does not represent any obligation to Israel anymore.

Second, about your second, It's absolutely blind to overlook the US relation to anything happens in the middle east, not to mention a so-called intelligence success. The US media wasn't established to support the Jordanian government's acts even if it was a direct order from Washington. And again, it's rather depressing and disappointing to hear such a word from you, "The US doesn't need Jordan to convince them that Hamas is a terrorist organization.", thank God you represent less than 1% of Jordanians.

Also, you have a funny vision of blaming the spokesman of the government as if he has to do with anything! The government itsself has little to maneuver on this how about its spoksman!

Kenaan has presented a convicing story because he stands on a ground of facts and awareness, and your blind justification for the government can be beaten easily by facts, big time!

At 2:28 PM, Blogger Khalaf said...

Omar: So, Hamas is more "pragmatic" because it is now accepting a two state solution (i.e., it now agrees with Fateh). I am sorry to tell you that this pragmatism comes too late. Suicide bombings that led to the election of Netenyaho, Barak and Sharon have completely changed the dynamic of the struggle in Palestine. Sharon had initially rejected the idea of the separation wall, only to change his mind after contiuous suicide bombings. You are right in saying that Israel does not feel obliged by the Oslo agreements. Hamas activities played a large part in doing that.

As for the US connection, I don't see any. There is no evidence that the US cares about this issue at all, nor that the Jordanian government is trying to leverage it in their relations with the US. This is simply blind speculation. You say that Kenaan stands on facts. What facts are you referring to?

At 3:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

منطقك في الحقيقة بناقض نفسه، أولا، وبحسب قولك إذا كانت الحكومة مقتنعة بفشل حماس فهذا مدعاة لها على العكس للتدخل لصالح عباس ومشروعه بوقاحة اكبر. يعني إذا إنته مشارط على شغلة، ومتأكد بنسبة كبيرة من صحة موقفك رح ترفع الشرط وتخش بقوة مش توقف تتفرّج. وبالنسبة لمن يديرون دفة الأمور في الأردن الآن الموضوع مس بس شرط ومقامرة
ثانيا، موضوع علاقة الأردن مع الولايات المتحدة الأميريكية، يعني شو بتتوقع تلاقي في الصحف الأميريكية، شو إنه امريكا تستنكرلك موقف الأردن من اللي بتعمله بحماس والشغب الفلسطيني! امريكا في علاقتها مع اللي مثل الأردن حسب المثل الشعبي : "أخدمني وأنا سيدك
يعني لما بتكون راضية عن اللي بصير عادة ما بتحكي لآنها ما بدها تضل تدفع فواتير هون وهون
ثالثا: في الحقيقة شئ مخزي لشخص بيدعي الحرص على مصالح شعبه وبيدعي المعرفة وناط بكل شغلة إنه يعدد عوامل فشل اوسلو وكأنه سببها مشكلة حماس وموقفها!؟ وكأن اسرائيل يا حرام بدها السلام بس حماس اللي مخربة الطبخة, يعني هذا موقف متهافت لايستحق الردّ، لآن أي واحد عايش المرحلة الحالية بحماس والا من دون حماس المفروض بيعرف الصحيح وما يخدع نفسه على الأقل ويحاول يخدع الآخرين، أول عملية إنتحارية لحماس ، وأنا شخصيا لست من مؤيدي هذه العمليات ، يبقى أن أول عملية جائت بعد مجزرة غولدشتين في الحرم الإبراهيمي،

At 3:15 PM, Blogger Khalaf said...

Khader: Your conclusion doesn't make sense. Why would the government of Jordan want to take blame (or credit) for Hamas' ultimate failure? My guess is that anybody against Hamas would like to see them fail of their own accord. Do I have to explain why?

Your tying the US into the story is baseless. Pure speculation.

Would you like us to beleive that the hundreds of suicide operations had nothing to do with changing the political scene in Israel, and the building of the fence? Why were they carried out then? I would submit to you that you are the one who is deceiving himself.

At 3:33 PM, Blogger Omar said...

Khalaf, I never said that the two-state solution isn't pragmatic, neither I said that I'm a huge fan of Hamas if that's what you're refering to by "(i.e., it now agrees with Fateh)", also I'm not very happy to keep saying that with every intention of peace and going towards a final settelment Fatah had, non of it helped in achieving anything but the noticed expansion of the size of their pockets. Now, your talking about suicide bombings and blaming them for the election of Sharon, the one that came during the climax of the ugliest acts against palestinians by Israel, I think that I represent a hell of a majority when I say "if you have a drop of jordanian blood running through your veins, you want refer to them as destructive acts!". I may not agree with every suicide bombing that took place among the struggle, but I still have a drop of dignity to call those specific bombings heroic and brave.

As for mr. sharon, I guess you should revise the guy's history, he's the one who said that he'll write a beautiful regretting peom after he finishes butchering all arabs (you're included) with his bare hands.

As for the US connection, I don't think that I'm convincing a zionist child here to tell him that Israel doesn't like Hamas, and Israel has a lobby inside the US, and the US can easily affect the government attitude, or do you want specific names and dates for that chain to convince you? abd as Khader said, "أخدمني وأنا سيدك"

I will thank God in my prayers that Jordan is filled with people who you don't represent any of them.

At 4:12 PM, Blogger Khalaf said...

Omar: Nobody can deny that Hamas worked to sabotage the Oslo accords. The only thing that is debatable is whether Hamas was the ultimate factor in the ultimate demise of these agreements.

So, given that Hamas is now calling for a two state solution (now that they are in power), don't you think that there is opportunism at play here? If we are not in power, we try to destroy what other people are doing, and when we achieve power, we strive for the same objectives?

Now, keeping our focus, I brought this up to say that Hamas will fail no matter what Jordan does. Despite all the rhetoric, I still don't see anybody claiming that Hamas might be able to succeed if Jordan helps them. Their greatest success will be to achieve what they have been fighting against for the last ten years.

At 1:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think that the success or failure of Hamas is not a big deal, Hamas have been fighting and will continue to fight the Israeli occupation, with or without the political power (I honestly believe that they've been doing better without), however the position of the Jordanian and the Egyptian gov shows whose really supporting the Palestinians and whose supporting the occupation.

At 6:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Omar: So, Hamas is more "pragmatic" because it is now accepting a two state solution (i.e., it now agrees with Fateh).'

When did Hamas announce it would accept a two-state solution? That would certainly be nice, but isn't that a violation of its charter?

At 1:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hassan el irbidawy
first i want to that khalaf for his work, keep doing ur work its good.
about hamas ,i agree with you khalaf in what u said, i think its true that our gov did not deal with hamas problem in a good way, but i think hamas in invloved in the case, and thats what the few nextdays will prove, lets wait and see, please all wait next thursday evening 11/may "tomorrow" there will be news.
again khalaf ya ibn 3ajlou keep in doing ur work.


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