Learning lessons

The continuing Israeli attacks on Lebanon and Gaza have been causing a severe identity crisis for me. I have always believed that Jordan’s priorities for development and prosperity were honorable goals that should not constitute a source of tension between us and our Arab brothers. In fact, the ideal situation would be for all of us to look inward and try to fix the monumental challenges that we as Arabs and Muslims face. Strong individual Arab countries should ultimately translate to a strong Arab nation.

While I still believe this, what is new is the question of what our role should be when other Arab countries are faced with external challenges, such as the current state of affairs. Many people are demanding that something be done to stop the death and destruction being meted out by Israel. The current response by Arab leaderships is totally inadequate, as most people see it.

Starting from a simple premise, it seems clear that all Arab leaderships are looking out for their own interests (as leaders or as states). This has always been the case, as most shows of Arab solidarity, such as the Arab summits, are viewed as farces, or at best avenues to shape individual interests in an Arab context. The sad truth is that Arab leaderships trust outside allies more than they trust other Arabs. This has opened the door for Israel, the US, the Europeans and Iran to meddle heavily in our affairs, to the point that we have little say as to what goes on in the Arab world.

Lebanon is a prime example of this. It is quite clear that neither the Lebanese nor the Arabs will have much to say as to how this situation will be resolved. One can be sure that the resolution will not have the welfare of Lebanon as a primary objective, no matter what anybody says.

So, the first question that should be asked is if Arabs allying themselves with foreign powers will guarantee their long-term stability. Certainly the former Iraqi regime didn’t benefit from not having any strong foreign patrons, with disastrous consequences. On the other hand, the pro-western Lebanese leadership has little to show for it’s alliance with the US and France, as these countries are more interested in the welfare of Israel than that of Lebanon.

Will the Arabs do better to ally themselves with Iran? The Iranians have clear territorial and strategic ambitions in the gulf and in Levant, as well as in Iraq. Moreover, the question of siding with the losing team pops up. Some Arab countries siding with the old Soviet Union (such as Iraq and Libya) ended up in bad shape after allying themselves with what was seen as the world’s second super power. Iran is not a super power, and is looking for American approval to expand it's influence in the region.

Arabs have long extolled the idea of the now defunct joint Arab defense pact. Of course, this pact only existed in the archives of the Arab League, and meant nothing. Should it be revived?

I believe that the Arabs should soon reach the conclusion that nobody can do anything for them except themselves. Waiting for the UN, the US, the quartet or whoever to swoop in and fix our problems is a sign of what a pathetic state we are now in.

What can Arabs do? Right now, close to nothing. We are destined to sit by and watch in horror. The only good thing that can come out of this is if we learn a lesson we should have learnt a long time ago.

In theory, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia can pick up the phone and call Bush. He only needs to say that he won’t be able to sustain current oil production levels for very long. Of course, because the Saudis are so dependent for their security on the US, this will not happen. The first step would be to convince the Saudi leadership not to count on US support if things get tough. The second would be to provide the Saudis with a viable defense alternative to the Americans. This would mean bolstering their own military and that of Jordan, Yemen and Egypt. The Saudis have enough money to implement such a strategy, and Egypt, Yemen and Jordan have the manpower. Of course, current thinking in the Gulf would be that the poor Arabs are looking for a new way to take their money. If they think they are safe now, I would submit to them that their American allies are not as sincere as they might seem (Dubai Ports?).

Such an ambitious project would mean creating a Saudi sphere of influence to counter that of the US and Iran. If the Saudis are willing to pay, then a real Arab center of gravity can be created to counter the helplessness we are now in. As individual countries, we will not be able to do much. To try would be suicide.